STUNNING! IHME Reduces Their Model Predictions AGAIN! -- Now Say Peak Is ON EASTER and Only 60,000 D

~ Exactly why W.H.O. should have pointed this out . Instead it went ignored and China was praised.
Most of us know better .

 

If my anecdotes were relevant, I'd provide them. Anecdote are not relevant. The facts are. Also, you don't need to cough or sneeze to spread the virus. Talking and exhaling also spread it.

How many people do you see out there talking and exhaling?

 

Ask the bus driver who had someone cough on him, and posted a video about it.

Oh yes, you can't. He's dead.

 

There was nothing dishonest about it.

First, I made my prediction without any qualification. I didn't modify it based on measures not yet taken at the time.

Second, Many of these models were made with the idea of some sort of response, not simply no response as you're implying. If you want to say that this particular model was based on "if we did nothing" than I think it's incumbent upon you to prove that.

Third, it regardless of the model's assumptions, it makes no difference to the conversation, since the poster I was discussing this with didn't make that distinction.

 

Yeah but trump is the deep state.

 

It wasn't simply about Trump, or politics. There were plenty of hysterical nutjobs on the right who were making the same case of apocalyptic doom. It was hysteria, pure and simple, the same type of hysteria that leads to witch burning and lynchings.

It was a remarkable thing to behold.

 

The poster you discussed this with made EXACTLY that distinction. And why are you asking me to "prove" something that you directly quoted? You chided me for not following your link, but I'm obviously more familiar with the content of that discussion than you are. Try reading it again.

 

What are you talking about. Trump stood there while his own people predicted up to 2.2 million dead.

Just curious: Do you claim to be an immunologist or a psychic?

 

Agreed.

Regardless of Mortality, opening society (and the economy) back up, after this period of social distancing is going to be the tricky part.

 

~ Yes it is ... ´

 

The report says we have to stay in lock down until the end of May to see those numbers.

 

@Lil Mike

Just a refresher, here was the post you responded to in the post you linked to. It makes exactly the distinction that you falsely claim it didn't make. Emphasis mine, obviously:

"IF WE DON"T RESPOND we can expect over 1.5 million dead.

This isn't the flu.

This is going to be a real learning experience for you.Reality is going to smack you upside the head."

 

I make no claims of expertise. I'm simply going for accuracy.

Now explain to me what Trump has to do with anything I said? I thought the models would be wrong, and they were. What's Trump got to do with it, do with it?

 

Your talking about what the poster said, not the conditions of the model.

 

You will just never understand it, I really don't believe you even want to. That's your choice.

 

Then surely you can point to a model somewhere that says 1.5 million dead in the US even if we take action. Something tells me you are making up this supposed "model."

How do the poster's comments contradict the model?

 

~ He is letting the medical "experts" do the talking. Amazing for Trump ! Now it simply means he let them take responsibility for the science which many are becoming skeptical of.

 

What is the source of your estimate, expertise in immunology or are you psychic?

Or was it a wild ass guess that means nothing?

The first person I heard mention the possibility of millions of deaths were trumps people. No one was hyping this. The threat was and is still real. Stop the social distancing and there will be a million or two dead.

Is that too complicated for you to understand?

 

Why can't you understand the simple reasons why it's not? Awareness, masks, infectious disease precautions, social distancing, public awareness, etc. ALL of these thing collectively has helped contain this virus. The US leads the world in diagnosed cases in the whole world. What do you think would have happened if nobody got on board with any of these defensive methods? It would have been catastrophic!

 

~ What if we all wear masks ... ?

 

No it doesn't, it says through May, does that mean May 1st, May 15th, etc. It's not clear.

 

No, the report says we have to stay in lock down until the end of May to keep the deaths down to 60K

 

Their argument is basically that all of the measures we've taken to stop the spread of the virus might mean that it kills about as many people this year as the far upper end of flu cases of the past decade, and that "proves" the virus is only about as deadly as the flu and maybe these measures were never necessary. Don't expect logic here, obviously.

 

You never have the facts straight. Go away.

 

No it doesn't. Where does it state such a thing?