The red wave didn't turn out how the Republicans had hoped.. here's my take why

It's become apparent that the 2022 red wave did not meet expectations... in fact it was a bit of a flop. Historically the midterms tend to drastically go against the party that controls the White House, but the 2022 midterms appear to be the strongest showing we have seen from an incumbent president's party in decades. So why is this?

Well it definitely isn't because the sitting president is popular, his approval sits somewhere between the high 30s and low 40s. This election isn't the result of the Democrat leadership's strength, it is the result of the Republican leadership's weakness, and it's that simple. Something that Republicans need to take into consideration is that maybe there are certain things that are popular within their own party that are not so popular to the general public. Listen... there are many reasons, and many issues at play for why things turned out the way they did, but if I had to pick a single characteristic of the current Republican party that is holding them back, it is how they callously and carelessly alienate the majority in favor of what is popular within their own circle.

Example #1 - Roe v Wade

For quite some time the overturning of Roe v Wade has been a popular topic within the Republican party, however within the broader population, we have seen an approval for Roe v Wade that typically sits somewhere between 64% to 67%. In the past, this hasn't been much of an issue, as things have remained mostly the same throughout the years.... but now that Roe v Wade has finally been overturned, this issue is going to have a bigger impact on our elections (especially in the senate and the White House) than ever before. That 64% to 67% are going to rally around this issue for years to come

Example #2 - Donald Trump

This really goes without saying.. the guy was the first president since Herbert Hoover to lose a house majority, lose a senate majority, AND lose reelection... and to top of all that, he left office with a lower approval rating than George W Bush... but unlike George W Bush, the Republicans of today are making no efforts to move forward. Instead they're making the bizarre decision to double down on their support for Trump... and don't get me wrong, he is definitely popular within the Republican circles, he can endorse a candidate in a primary election, and that candidate will likely receive a huge boost from his support... but going beyond a Republican primary election, the opposite is true. Take Michigan's 3rd district for example, this district hasn't had a Democrat represent them in 30 years. The current representative of this district is Peter Meijer, who replaced Justin Amash, who ultimately lost his seat because he voted to impeach Trump. So what did Meijer do his first week in officer of replacing Amash? Well his first week in officer he voted in favor of Trump's second impeachment. This was never going to work in Meijer's favor, as you would guess Trump endorsed Meijer's opposition in the primary election, despite the fact that Meijer had a strong approval rating, and faired 10 points better against the Democrat opposition than any other Republican. As you might guess, Meijer lost the primary election decisively, only for the Trump endorsed candidate to decisively lose the midterm election, and hand that district to the Democrats for the first time in 30 years. This is the kind of flip that one would only expect during a blue wave.. this definitely is not supposed to happen during a red wave

Example #3 - Alienating the voters who didn't vote for you

Typically when you lose voters in an election, you do what you can to win their favor back on your side for the next election... but the current leadership of the Republican party (by which I mean Trump) have a better idea.. deny that they ever voted against you to begin with. This is again a popular idea within the Republican circles, it gives people a sense of comfort in their own special space to be told they they voted with the majority, that they won in a landslide, and that they only lost because they were cheated, not because they were less popular. Well, while that might be appealing for the crowd that voted for you, imagine how that feels for the crowd that did not vote for you. It would be one thing if you could provide the proper proof to back your claims, but when you go through every court ruling at the state and federal level, and every investigation at the state, federal and private level, and each any every one of them seem come to the same unanimous conclusion that no evidence could be found.. well, to the people who voted against you, it feels more like you are trying to undermine their vote completely... and when you do that, those people do not feel so inclined to vote for you or your party the next time around. In fact they feel threatened by you, and that you're a danger to Democracy itself. Perhaps it gives you a good feeling knowing that they feel that way about you, in a sense you might feel that you are getting back at them for not voting for your guy.. but in no logical sense is this a practical political strategy. You're not improving your odds in any way, you are only causing more dismay towards you.

There are many more examples that can be named, but these would be the three biggest factors in my opinion. This is an election that should have been a complete wash, because quite frankly, Joe Biden was never been a strong candidate, he only cruises on the fact that he was Obama's VP, and things have not been going well for this country during the time that Joe Biden and the Democrats have controlled the white house, the senate, and the house of representatives. That being said, by all likelihood, inflation will probably stabilize by 2024, just as it did between 1981 and 1984. This was the Republican's time to come up big and they didn't, so Republicans are going to need to seriously revaluate some things within their own party going forward. You can't rely on people voting for you based on the fact that the Democrats are unpopular, when you are even more unpopular than the Democrats... which is saying something, considering you're not even the one in charge of things!

 

I agree that, sadly, the voters wanted to punish republican candidates for the Dobbs decision. I don't think Trump bashing made any difference at all. Neither did Trump's rantings. It was, as always, about policy and that sends shivers down my spine. At least you don't have to destroy democracy over it.

 

still a little early bit it does appear that they will have a majority in the house. that can be attributed only to their gerrymanders, not their popularity.

a fact that will come out later is total voters for dem congress candidates vs repub total.

turn out in my precinct was very high, almost every woman and girl turned out. if that is true nationwide repubs should be very fearful in the future.

 

You're kidding yourself, tRaitor tRump motivates Democrat voters like no one else ever has. If he'd have stayed home last weekend ya'all would have done better yesterday.

 

trump and his rabid fans are a constant reminder of why we must continue to oppose them.

 

Yep..stayed home and picked up a paint brush, like George W.

 

This was an election that, for me, restored a little hope for the country. The feckless criminal known as Individual 1, and the candidates he endorsed, by and large turned out to be an ankle weight on the POT's aspirations. The country rejected the Crazy despite high inflation and an unpopular prez.

 

Republicans need to realize that MAGA isn't going to help them win general elections. They need to figure out a way to stop MAGA from winning their primaries.

Ron Desantis emerged as the most powerful Republican after last night, and they are going to have to do everything possible to stop Trump from going scorched Earth against him if they want to remain relevant as a party.

 

And continue we must...
ETTD is a fact.

 

As I explained in another thread, being within the margin of error does not make it a dead heat. There were a number of races where the polls showed republicans trailing, but within the margin of error. I heard too many commentators say that they thought republicans would win those races because of the trending. I had my doubts.

 

But Trump wasn't on the ballot. Your theory makes democrats look bad. One shouldn't make voting decisions based on opinionated commentary. One should consider the facts if they can find any.

 

The first one proves the danger and the fallacy of the Supreme Court. It claims that the political factors of its decisions don't and shouldn't matter, but its decisions ultimately result in a diktat that the people may or may not like at a given time. And despite conservative judges being appointed to the Court, the conservatives should not be blamed for the SCOTUS decision. But since SCOTUS cannot be voted on, the party will be held responsible for decisions that the Court made.

This isn't a healthy development if parties are going to be blamed and political order thrown out because of court decisions, now and in the future. This is further proof that the Supreme Court should be abolished, as something that goes against the State and its Natural Order.

 

Trump was on the ballot, and he lost. This makes it a bigger Republican win than if they had taken the senate and house with larger majorities. Purging Trumpism from the party is more important long-term than taking a majority for the next two years.

Most of the voters on both sides are ignorant of the issues and motivated by emotion, that isn't anything new.

 

Another promising sign many voters are willing to split tickets and vote for the quality of the candidate not the party they represent.

 

"ONE"; lol. "ONE", Individual 1 is a fact in America that, given a chance, another chance, will do his best to end Government by the people. That's a "fact" that more AmeriCAN's than I imagined are all to well aware of. And you're wrong, tRaitor tRump put himself on the ballot every time he endorsed a candidate, because he made that endorsement ALL about ... him.

 

and the democrats funded and voted for Trump loyalists in the primaries. That worked. And the abortion issue is why brain dead Fetterman beat Oz-Oz killed his chances when he said abortion decisions should between a woman, the father and LOCAL POLITICIANS.

what is funny is that many of the governors who signed abortion bans won easily like Dewine in Ohio

 

You must be having a bad day. Trump has no power to end democracy. I see indications that the democrats would like to do that, however. Political parties, laughably, blame the competition for their own poor actions. Our country is in trouble and it is due to the abandonment of common sense. It has nothing at all to do with politics.

 

i questioned the strategy of supporting trumpist candidates but this is 2022. all republicans are trumpists.

as for fetterman, he is at least a pennsylvanian. the turkish telequack will be back in new jersey bu nightfall.

 

I do agree with your last sentence. People tend to vote for people who are good looking, speak coherently, promise to provide freebies and have personalities that appeal to them. Few voters actually know what is going or is good for the nation. The major problem with democracy is an ignorant electorate.

 

It's always going to be that way. People don't have time to understand everything, they never will. They have to go to work and live their life.

 

At this point we don't know for sure who will have control of either chamber of Congress. But even if Republicans get control of both, this has been a defeat for Trumpist nuts running on election denial. A big blow for Trump who was probably not a thread for Democrats, as he will likely be in prison in 2024. A win for DeSantis within the Republican Party. Which is not great but... you can't have everything.

Now that that's over with, we can focus on punishing the real culprits of the January 6 insurrection.

 

I think the main takeaway from the midterms is that Trumpist brainless hate-speech, like calling a stroke victim "brain-dead" is slowly but surely going out of style. People are just sick of it. This trend can only improve between now and 2024.

 

trump placed himself on the ballot with cooperation of his endorsees .

 

While there is much data yet to be learned and I have not yet heard any turnout data, my gut feeling is that this may be related to the new mail in election turnout numbers which have perhaps created a new turnout norm.

Democrats have always been favored by the part of the electorate that does not typically turnout for elections (ie. the young vote and people that do not care enough pay or pay enough attention to bother to turn out to vote). If this is true, this is great for Democrats and sobering for Republicans. It used to be that enthusiasm mattered a great deal because it was an accurate predictor of who was going to turn out and who was not. If my theory is correct, the mail in format, by making voting very easy has changed this dynamic greatly, and this would explain why a midterm election which always sees far greater enthusiasm amongst the party out of power and thus far greater turnout for their side, would be blunted by a new higher turnout model for Democrats specifically.

Republicans can perhaps legitimately argue that this new turnout norm that now includes the people that do not really care or understand much about politics is a step backwards for society because those folks on the whole are less politically educated and even more likely to fall for nonsensical propaganda which will only serve to lower the level of political discourse and tactics. But when it is all said and done, that is of little solace to a party that is going to have to adapt to this new turnout model that is far more difficult for their side to navigate.

As a Republican, I hope that I am wrong. I fear though that I am right. When the turnout numbers are realeased, it will be interesting to see how they compare to the last midterm, and even how they compare to 2020 (at least in the competitive states where Democrats have really pushed mail in voting)

 

Trump (and those who continue to suck up to him over the "big lie") make Republicans look bad. If you will notice, most of the Republicans who did win in the general election were ones that distanced themselves from Trump and those that lost (again, for the most part) where those that kowtowed to Trump.