Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-018 & 019, posted 2020-09-020, 13:00 GMT +2, #12389.
Pre-analysis Excel-tables (weekly averages): worldwide and top 4, posted 2020-09-021, 09:15 GMT +2, #12399.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-020, posted 2020-09-021, 10:15 GMT +2, #12400.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for for Sunday, 2020-09-020 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
THE USA WENT OVER 7,000,000 COVID-19 CASES ON SUNDAY, 2020-09-020

******* 7,004,768 *******

+37,365 new COVID-19 cases over the day before, more than the Sunday one week before.
Wisconsin goes over 100,000 total C19 cases.
There are now 204,118 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, +294 of those deaths were recorded on this day
USA WEEKLY rolling average = 42,330 new infections & 800 deaths per day. Both rubriks are on the upswing again.
14,020 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-64 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 98.16 million

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The big news of the week, of course, is that the USA has now crossed over 200,000 total C19 deaths and 7,000,000 confirmed C19 infections.

You can see from the excel table that the weekly average in +cases and in +daily deaths rose over the week before, from Sunday, 2020-09-013 to Sunday, 2020-09-020. This is not the direction in which we want to go.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 1 unit/rubrik change(s) over these 48 hours: Wisconsin. Over the entire week, there was/were 7 unit/rubrik change(s), 5 of them in total cases, but 2 in total deaths. When you consider how small the Navajo Nation is in terms of population, hitting the 10,000 mark in total C19 cases is very disturbing to see. Also, the fact that Hawaii has now, in spite of a complete travel ban, hit 100 total deaths tells me that even an Island chain that has pretty much cut itself off from most of the world is not immune to C19. WHERE the deaths are occuring in Arkansas is perhaps the most disturbing of all: a lot of them are happening in sparsely populated, rural areas. You notice that the number of units with 5,000 cases is now 54. Pretty soon, it will also be 57 and also a locked-in statistic.

An important note about the Rubrik-Table: until now, in the rubriks of +cases and +daily deaths, I have been itemizing the numbers by states and non-states. WorldOMeter, when it moved to add numerical rankings in its USA calculation table, lists DC among the states, so that value is already 51 instead of 50. Since so many non-state entities are getting way up there in numbers, I am going to stop itemizing these things anymore, as of today, 2020-09-021. So, if for instance, you see the number 35 under the number of units with over +500 cases on that day, but you only see 33 "states" on the list, then you will automatically know that the 2 missing units are at the bottom of the table and are among the non-states. This is one math-detail I am striking from all of this, it really does save me time and allows you, the reader, to do more math in your head. However, in the rubrik +deaths at +10 or more, I will still itemize the range of deaths, for instance "(11/144)" which means that the units that had more than +10 deaths had between 11 and 144, to be exact.

But as an added detail, in the top 5 states, since they are obviously shifting from FL/CA/TX/GA/AZ to other states far more frequently, as of today, 2020-09-021, I will itemize the top five states no matter which ones they are and list the state names to the left of the number. The state name will be in GREEN from now on.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

California is poised to go over 800,000 C19 cases in the next week.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

7 of the 11 states on the 1,000 list are from the South, 2 are from the Midwest/Great Lakes states and 1 is from the West Coast.
Oklahoma is once again on the 1,000 list.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the 48 hour period analysed with 204,118 total US deaths from COVID-19.



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of just slightly less than the population of MORENO VALLEY, never to get it back again.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013). 200,000 deaths were reached 5 days before, on 2020-09-015.
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:



This means that we are currently at +4,021 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 4.7 days ahead of the next milestone-projections. This value is lower than the corresponding day in the week before (+4,373), to note. As you can see, the USA hit the 200,000 death mark five days ahead of the milestone-projections.

I know it may be tiring to see these statistics all the time, but I do think it's important to follow the data-path every day and to put it in print, for posterity's sake, so that the naysayers cannot say "nay" without looking totally ignorant.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

I have sung/davened this particular Kaddish many, many times!

 

Welcome back, Cranky-Dänky!!

 

RUSSIA

​

I would just like to note that Russia's daily case count is really on the rise again. That nation just released its numbers for today and now for the third day in a row, Russia is over +6,000 new cases. Sounds like peanuts compared to India, the USA and Brazil, also sometimes Venezuela, Ecuador and as of late, either France of Spain, but fact is that the last time Russia was in the +6,000 case range was on 2020-07-019, more than 2 months ago.





I mean, for a country that claimed to have a working vaccine (which no one seems to want to buy or mass produce, btw), this shouldn't be happening.

Something is up in Russia.

-Stat

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/britain-could-face-50000-coronavirus-cases-per-day-by-mid-october-warn-top-government-scientists/2020/09/21/a339bad0-fbe1-11ea-b0e4-350e4e60cc91_story.html

OUCH

 

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest not quite so well as the Cantor in question!

Happy to stand corrected

 

Tanks

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Pre-analysis Excel-tables (weekly averages): worldwide and top 4, posted 2020-09-021, 09:15 GMT +2, #12399.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-020, posted 2020-09-021, 10:15 GMT +2, #12400.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-020, posted 2020-09-021, 10:45 GMT +2, #12401.
Russia’s +cases are on the rise again, posted 2020-09-021, 11:30 GMT +2, #12404.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Monday, 2020-09-021 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
֍֍֍* 31,476,206 *֍֍֍

+246,411 new C19 cases over the day before, less than the Monday one week before.
TOTAL C19 cases: 165 nations with 1,000+, 96 with 10,000+, 59 with 50,000+, 36 with 100,000+, 4 with 1,000,000+.
There have now been 969,018 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +4,256 of them were on this day.
INDIA has reported more than +1,000 deaths per day for 21 days in a row and for 25 of the last 28 days total.
Worldwide 7-day-rolling averages: +291,498 new C19 cases per day / +5,225 deaths per day
+1,056 Indian, +455 Brazilian, +429 Argentinian, +388 US-American & +235 Mexican new deaths were recorded on this day.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 61,714 (+246 over the day before)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

Just the day before, on 2020-09-020, the world went over 31 million confirmed COVID-19 cases. Already on the day after, the day being analysed, 2020-09-021, we are at 31.5 million. That being said, there were slightly less cases than on the Monday before, due mostly to a reduction in +cases in India.

An extrapolation that I have running at the USA analyses projects that the USA will hit 250,000 deaths by 2020-11-018 (we are currently 5 days ahead of the projections) and 300,000 deaths by early January, 2021.

The number of worldwide daily deaths (4,256) for the day being analysed was less than the Monday before (4,459).

BTW, I have no idea why the time-stamp appeared twice on the screenshot of the excel table. Consider it a nice extra going into this week.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 4 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: Tunisia, Switzerland, Czechia and Algeria.

It could be helpful as the week develops to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +600 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

5 of the top 10 nations are from the Americas.

For the 1st time ever, Indonesia is in the top 10.

Israel has moved from rank 10 to rank 15.
​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

The top 4:

USA, total deaths: 204,506 / 21.13% of worldwide deaths (21.16% the day before). The USA is currently expected to hit 250,000 deaths Mid-November, 2020.

Brazil, total deaths: 137,350 / 14.19% of worldwide deaths (also 14.19% the day before, for the 2nd time). Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 711 per day, from 2020-09-013 = +96 days from now: 2020-12,020.

India, total deaths: 88,965 / 9.19% of worldwide deaths (9.11% the day before), -11,035 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,167 per day, from 2020-09-015 = +15.3 days: 2020-10-001. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

Mexico, total deaths: 73,493 / 7.59% of worldwide deaths (7.56% the day before). No extrapolation for 100,000 deaths quite yet.

Combined (504,314), the top four nations currently represent 52.10% of all total deaths in the world to-date (was also 52.05% the day before).

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history: USA and Brazil. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three -or four- largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days. That streak was broken on 2020-08-028.

India reached a rolling 7-day death average of +1,000 (or more) for the first time on 2020-09-005 and has maintained it until current.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

57 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 57, 10 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil, Germany, Spain, Italy and France.


END-FACIT: on 2020-09-021, the world travelled from 31.23 million total C19 cases over the day before, hopscotching over 31.3 and 31.4 million to land at 31.48 million. The world will likely go over 32 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on Wednesday 2020-09-023, or on Thursday, 2020-09-024 at the latest.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-020, posted 2020-09-021, 10:45 GMT +2, #12401.
Russia’s +cases are on the rise again, posted 2020-09-021, 11:30 GMT +2, #12404.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-021, posted 2020-09-022, 09:18 GMT +2, #12408

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for for Monday, 2020-09-021 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

******* 7,046,216 *******

+41,448 new COVID-19 cases over the day before, slightly more than the Monday one week before.
There are now 204,506 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, +388 of those deaths were recorded on this day
USA 7-day-rolling average = 42,418 new infections & 787 deaths per day.
14,041 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (+21 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 98.16 million

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

So, this is how the USA has begun this week. The number of daily deaths on this Monday (388 ) were less than the Monday before (480) but more than two Mondays before (284).

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 0 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day.

An important note about the Rubrik-Table: until now, in the rubriks of +cases and +daily deaths, I had been itemizing the numbers by states and non-states. WorldOMeter, when it moved to add numerical rankings in its USA calculation table, lists DC among the states, so that value is already 51 instead of 50. Since so many non-state entities are getting way up there in numbers, I am going to stop itemizing these things anymore as of 2020-09-021. So, if for instance, you see the number 26 under the number of units with over +500 cases on that day, but you only see 24 "states" on the list, as was the case for 2020-09-021, then you will automatically know that the 2 missing units are among the non-states at the bottom of the table. This is one math-detail I am striking from all of this, it really does save me time and allows you, the reader, to do more math in your head. However, in the rubrik +deaths at +10 or more, I will still itemize the range of deaths, for instance "(11/144)" which means that the units that had more than +10 deaths had between 11 and 144, to be exact.

But as an added detail, in the top 5 states, since they are obviously shifting from FL/CA/TX/GA/AZ to other states far more frequently, as of today, 2020-09-021, I will itemize the top five states no matter which ones they are and list the state names to the left of the number. If you look at the screenshot above, you will see that the top five states for this day were: CA/TX/FL/MI/MO.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

California is poised to go over 800,000 C19 cases in the next 2 to 3 days. Were California to be an individual nation instead of a US-State, it would currently be rank 5 in the worldwide C19 rankings, between Russia and Peru.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

Oklahoma is once again on the 1,000 list.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the 48 hour period analysed with 204,506 total US deaths from COVID-19.



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than the population of MORENO VALLEY, never to get it back again.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013). 200,000 deaths were reached 5 days before, on 2020-09-015.
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:



This means that we are currently at +3,559 deaths over the extrapolation (the lowest +value since 2020-08-01, which puts us also currently 4.2 days ahead of the next milestone-projections. This value is lower than the corresponding day in the week before (+4,003), to note. As you can see, the USA hit the 200,000 death mark five days ahead of the milestone-projections.

I know it may be tiring to see these statistics all the time, but I do think it's important to follow the data-path every day and to put it in print, for posterity's sake, so that the naysayers cannot say "nay" without looking totally ignorant.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

It's often sund, in this dance-type of form, as the Chatzi-Kaddisch. I just love it, because it proves that even in a minor key, one can sound "happy", which is good, because in the Kaddish there is not even one single word over death or dying. In fact the entire prayer (in Aramaic, not Ivrit) is praise of G-d, listing his many wonderful attributes. The Kaddish is the forerunner of the Christian's LORD'S PRAYER. And this particular melody is one of the very few that literally every Jew across the world knows and recognizes, which is why it is often used in Synagogue Services where a great number of visitors are from foreign lands.

The Chazzan in that video is very, very good. He has a beautiful legato in his voice and his tamber reminds one of the great Josef Schmidt, a famous German Jewish tenor of the 1920s and 1930s, who was too small for stage work but made his name in radio, and he made it big-time. His nickname was "the pocket Caruso" and he was so beloved, Hitler did not dare touch him until 1941. He is also the only professional singer in history to be celebrated by a ticker-tape parade in Times Square in New York City. He fled over the border to Switzerland in 1941, his feet got infected from the extreme cold and the Swiss literally let him die, refused to help him. He was one of the giants of song in the 1930s, one who will never be forgotten, and one of my greatest heros of all time. He posessed a top voice far superior to Pavarotti's even on Pavarotti's best day.

So, enough non-COVID-19 rambling, but I think one can forgive me waxing poetic over such wonderful music, nöööö. Showing one's humanity helps us to get through the C19 crisis, which is about to get much, much worse between now and Christmas Day, to be sure.

 

Iran appears to have entered a third wave

 

For @Statistikhengst, and all of our other Jewish forum members. Happy New Year!

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-021, posted 2020-09-022, 09:18 GMT +2, #12408 .
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-021, posted 2020-09-022, 09:41 GMT +2, #12409 .

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Tuesday, 2020-09-022 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
֍֍֍* 31,769,782 *֍֍֍

+293,576 new C19 cases over the day before, more than the Tuesday one week before.
For the second time ever, 6 nations recorded more than +10,000 fresh C10 infections in just one day.
Alarming +case statistics from GUADELOUPE. see: +cases
TOTAL C19 cases: 165 nations with 1,000+, 96 with 10,000+, 59 with 50,000+, 37 with 100,000+, 4 with 1,000,000+.

There have now been 974,760 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,742 of them were on this day.
INDIA has reported more than +1,000 deaths per day for 22 days in a row and for 26 of the last 29 days total.
INDIA is also now less than 10,000 away from 100,000 total COVID-19 deaths in that nation.
Worldwide 7-day-rolling averages: +293,121 new C19 cases per day / +5,182 deaths per day
+1,056 Indian, +965 US-American, +809 Brazilian, +490 Argentinian & +241 Spanish new deaths were recorded on this day.

The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 61,990 (+276 over the day before)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

It looks like the world is on target to have, once again, at least 3 peak days this week with over +300,000 per day, starting today, Wednesday, 2020-09-023, but it could end up being 4 days. Wait and see.

There is a LARGE disparity in US cases from 2020-09-022: WorldOmeter says +35,696, my excel table says +51,721 a disparity of 16,025 cases, all of which were added retroactively to the USA's past totals.

Also, it looks as if +cases in India are actually receding somewhat, but daily deaths are not and in a statistical rarity, India has now reported +1,056 daily deaths for the second day in a row.

The number of worldwide daily deaths (5,742) for the day being analysed was less than the Tuesday one week before (6,038 ).

An extrapolation that I have running at the USA analyses projects that the USA will hit 250,000 deaths by 2020-11-018 (we are currently circa 5 days ahead of the projections) and 300,000 deaths by early January, 2021.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 5 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: Kuwait, Myanmar, Suriname, Phillippines and Bangladesh.

It could be helpful as the week develops to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +500 C19 cases and above):
​

India, which passed Brazil in total cases 16 days before, is now +1,045,161 cases ahead of Brazil and -1,457,441 cases behind the USA. By the end of the week, that relationship will be reversed and India will end up less cases behind the USA and far more cases ahead of Brazil. It is now only a matter of time before India takes rank 1 among the nations in terms of total cases and this will likely happen in October, 2020.

Also, both Peru and Colombia are racing toward 800,000 total C19 cases, well ahead of Mexico and it is quite possible that both of them will hit 1,000,0000 cases in the same week, probably by middle of October, 2020.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

4 of the top 10 nations are from the Americas.
3 of the top 10 nations are from Europe: Spain, France and the UK.

For the 1st time ever, Guadeloupe, a nation with a population of only 400,000 people, is on the +1,000 list. Not only that, Guadeloupe has only conducted 47,049 tests, or 11.76% of its total population. Guadeloupe's case growth rate from 2020-09-021 to 2020-09-022: 30.96%.

​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

The top 4:

USA, total deaths: 205,471 / 21.08% of worldwide deaths (21.13% the day before). The USA is currently expected to hit 250,000 deaths Mid-November, 2020.

Brazil, total deaths: 138,159 / 14.18% of worldwide deaths (14.19% the day before, for the 2nd time). Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 711 per day, from 2020-09-013 = +96 days from now: 2020-12,020.

India, total deaths: 90,021 / 9.24% of worldwide deaths (9.19% the day before), -9,979 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,167 per day, from 2020-09-015 = +15.3 days: 2020-10-001. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

Mexico, total deaths: 73,697 / 7.56% of worldwide deaths (7.59% the day before). No extrapolation for 100,000 deaths quite yet.

Combined (507,348), the top four nations currently represent 52.05% of all total deaths in the world to-date (was also 52.10% the day before).

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history: USA and Brazil. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three -or four- largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days. That streak was broken on 2020-08-028.

India reached a rolling 7-day death average of +1,000 (or more) for the first time on 2020-09-005 and has maintained it until current.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

57 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 57, 10 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil, Germany, Spain, Italy and France.


END-FACIT: on 2020-09-022, the world travelled from 31.48 million total C19 cases over the day before, hopscotching over 31.5, 31.6 and 31.7 million to land at 31.77 million. The world will likely go over 32 million confirmed COVID-19 cases today Wednesday 2020-09-023, or on Thursday, 2020-09-024 at the latest.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-021, posted 2020-09-022, 09:41 GMT +2, #12409 .
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-022, posted 2020-09-023, 08:54 GMT +2, #12413.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for for Tuesday, 2020-09-022 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
THE USA WILL GO OVER 100,000,000 TOTAL DOCUMENTED COVID-19 TESTS ON 2020-09-023

******* 7,097,937 *******
+51,721 new COVID-19 cases over the day before, considerably more than the Tuesday one week before.
With Wyoming going over 5,000 total C19 cases, 49 out of 50 US states / 55 out of 57 "Units" are now over the 5,000-mark.
There are now 205,471 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, +965 of those deaths were recorded on this day
USA 7-day-rolling average = 42,256 new infections & 753 deaths per day.
14,059 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (+18 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 99.7 million

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

There is a LARGE disparity in US cases from 2020-09-022: WorldoMeter says +35,696, my excel table says +51,721 a disparity of 16,025 cases, all of which were added retroactively to the USA's past totals at WorldOMeter. My Excel-data remains as it was.

The number of daily deaths on this Monday (965) was less than the Tuesday before (1,187) but consideradly more than two Tuesdays before (498).

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 1 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day: WYOMING.

An important note about the Rubrik-Table: until now, in the rubriks of +cases and +daily deaths, I had been itemizing the numbers by states and non-states. WorldOMeter, when it moved to add numerical rankings in its USA calculation table, lists DC among the states, so that value is already 51 instead of 50. Since so many non-state entities are getting way up there in numbers, I am going to stop itemizing these things anymore as of 2020-09-021. So, if for instance, you see the number 26 under the number of units with over +500 cases on that day, but you only see 24 "states" on the list, as was the case for 2020-09-021, then you will automatically know that the 2 missing units are among the non-states at the bottom of the table. This is one math-detail I am striking from all of this, it really does save me time and allows you, the reader, to do more math in your head. However, in the rubrik +deaths at +10 or more, I will still itemize the range of deaths, for instance "(11/144)" which means that the units that had more than +10 deaths had between 11 and 144, to be exact.

But as an added detail, in the top 5 states, since they are obviously shifting from FL/CA/TX/GA/AZ to other states far more frequently, as of today, 2020-09-021, I will itemize the top five states no matter which ones they are and list the state names to the left of the number. If you look at the screenshot above, you will see that the top five states for this day were: TX/CA/FL/MO/WI.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

California is poised to go over 800,000 C19 cases in the next 2 days. Were California to be an individual nation instead of a US-State, it would currently be rank 5 in the worldwide C19 rankings, between Russia and Peru.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

Oklahoma is once again on the 1,000 list.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

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COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

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FACIT: we ended the 48 hour period analysed with 205,471 total US deaths from COVID-19.



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than the population of MORENO VALLEY, but less than the total population of OXNARD, never to get the one or the other back again.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013). 200,000 deaths were reached 5 days before, on 2020-09-015.
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:


This means that we are currently at +3,674 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 4.3 days ahead of the next milestone-projections. This value is lower than the corresponding day in the week before (+4,350), to note. As you can see, exactly one week before, the USA hit the 200,000 death mark five days ahead of the milestone-projections.

I know it may be tiring to see these statistics all the time, but I do think it's important to follow the data-path every day and to put it in print, for posterity's sake, so that the naysayers cannot say "nay" without looking totally ignorant.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

YEPP.

 

There has been a large C19 outbreak in the German city of Hamm, which is a city in the province where I live. upwards of 150 C19 infections can be traced back to a single wedding (ceremony, reception, banquet) there.

Hamm, almost 800 years old (founded in 1,226 CE) and currently with a population of 180,000 residents, was mostly a very industrial city, part of what is called the "Ruhrgebiet" in Germany (you could liken it to the coal/steel/chemical/auto cities of the upper industrial Midwest of the USA and in some ways really reminds me of Pittsburgh) and is to this day a pretty important industrial city, with some of the few remaining coal mines in Germany (Bergbau). Why this all is important is that Hamm is in the middle of the most travelled Spedition area of Germany, which makes if very akin to Dayton, OH, in the USA (at the crossing of I-70 and I-75, with I-675 as the ring and I-71 very close by) - so a major outbreak in a city that is a spedition hub is not a good sign.

Another important detail: the wedding and the wedding party were celebrated inside one of the old mines (called a "Zeche") that has been converted to a mining museum. This means that people were close together, underground where there are no windows to open and the temperature was cooler and definitely more humid. What's even more bad news is that, according to reports, most people actually wore masks, but it did them no good. I sang a wedding at one of those Zechen in the Spring of 2017, in Gelsenkirchen, so I know what they are like.

Anyhow, the city of Hamm is looking at those 150 cases blooming into over 10,000 cases, since most of the people who were at the wedding came from all over Germany and travelled home to their communities and now more C19 is being spread.

Something similar is happening in Remscheid, not far away.

So, Hamm is probably going on complete lockdown and there is already an order for all school kids and university students to wear masks the entire day.

I don't write much about Germany here, but C19 is still definitely among us - just, the pace has been somewhat slower. That being said, Germany is edging upwards toward 10,000 total C19 deaths, I assume they will get there sometime in October. What separates Germany from the USA is that their medical personnel are not burning out, precisely because Germany flattened the curve so low and kept it there for an extremely long time. Remember, that was the entire idea back in March: to flatten the curve.

Just wanted to share with you how these public gatherings are causing infection problems not just in the USA, but pretty much everywhere. An update on this will be coming shortly.

-Stat

 

With a plus number that is bound to catch the attention of evangelical Bible enthusiasts, currently with a record-setting +6,667 new C19 cases for that country, Israel just went over 200,000 total C19 cases.

 

Anyone.....

197 deaths in Florida today, 438,112 Active cases

Death per 1M pop, currently at 634.....low and high predictions?

Low; 850

High; 1,050

 

What a tease...

 

Ok, enough tease:

THE WORLD GOES OVER 32,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-10 CASES​

That is the equivalent the entire population of: MALAYSIA.

-Stat

 

Shall we call it now the Malaysian flu ?

 

What’s this herd immunity?

“
Malmo: Sweden's public health agency is discussing imposing new coronavirus restrictions on Stockholm after the city's health chief warned of "worrying signs of increasing infection".

It came shortly after Björn Eriksson, Stockholm's health chief, said the long decline in cases in the city had ended.

"The downwards trend is broken," he said. "We can only hope this is a blip, that the spread starts decreasing again." According to the Public Health Agency, 1200 new cases and five deaths have been reported since Friday, a sharp increase on the average of 200 cases a day in recent weeks.”

Melbourne Age 24/09/2020

 

Unsurprisingly, like I've been saying forever and ever, the Herd Immunity Through Natural Infection strategy is boneheaded and doesn't work. Predictable.

 

No argument here, but there seems to be a boneheaded stratum which will argue about this.

 

This makes me sad.

We're digressing. Carl Sagan would be so proud.