Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Aha. Sometimes I cannot see to whom your response is aimed....
     
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  2. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Had you ever heard of hydroxy chloroquine before trump brought it up as a cure?
     
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  3. nobodyspecific

    nobodyspecific Well-Known Member Donor

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    Just a small update from Worldometers. The US is now showing 700+ deaths for the day. Thus the US has skipped right over the 600's and into the 700's. Also worrying is the sheer number of states posing 20+ deaths all at once, showing just how many states are only a week or two behind where New York currently is:

    mar-30-us-states-deaths.png
     
  4. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    When the model shows a best case scenario of 100,000, I believe that the model does already include the expectation of "essential employees" continuing to go to work, and of course, everyone has to buy groceries either at the store or order take-out restaurant or home delivery. That "perfect behavior" model though also assumes that people who are working or shopping are maintaining the recommended 6 feet of social distance as part of "perfect compliance" with the rules.
     
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  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    First, I am glad that you are here. And I hope that you and your family are well.

    Second, some of the early efforts did help to earn the USA some time, but probably not as much as you may be thinking.

    Third, and quite obviously, the very reason why Trump changed course from opening the economy at Eastertide to extending the 15 days to a sum total of 45 is because his experts showed him what would happen to those numbers based on what we do RIGHT NOW and not based on anything from the past. Were it based on the past, then there would have been no reason for him to change course.

    Fourth, neither you nor I have seen the worst case scenario yet.

    Fifth, I find it hard to call 100,000 to 200,000 dead Americans a "massive win", but surely that is preferred to losing 2-4 million Americans. Without knowing you at all, I am going to assume that you are expressing relief that it will not be as bad as it really could be, and there I am very much in agreement with you.
     
  6. Spim

    Spim Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I hear ya, and I say if there is doubt. give them the test, unless you don't have enough tests, then send them to where there are tests, or admit they dont have any to spare then IMO we still have a testing problem.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Good night, folks. Stay safe, stay healthy, may G-d bless you all.
     
  8. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Iceland has one going.
     
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  9. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, the model online shows a 40,000 lower limit, and I think that would occur only if some people who are out and about today where being out is unnecessary suddenly changed behavior and stayed inside all the time, had all the food delivered to their front door, etc.

    The online model at this moment shows a "perfect behavior" projection of 84,000 which is about 3,000 higher than it was a couple of days ago. At the press briefing today, we started talking about 100,000. I'm not sure if that was the task force or us on this thread "rounding up" to an easy ballpark number to talk about. I need to rewind that part of the press conference to see if the charts Birx put up are different from what is online. It may be that her charts are more updated and the one posted online has not yet been updated to show the current projection.

    The upper band, if people don't exhibit "perfect behavior" is currently showing close to 160,000 deaths. So we have a range of 40,000 to almost 160,000 deaths expected.

    I know we all hope for an effective treatment to be discovered, which is not reflected in the model. We do have some trials running here and other countries do as well. One (or more) could end up being a breakthrough treatment. That would certainly be a blessing. :)


    upload_2020-3-31_18-59-0.png
     
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  10. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    That is her nick in Germany and why she has been able to run the country for so long.
    Mother = shelter.
    Mothers are not spectacular, no sex symbol, they wipe your ars, blow on bruise, put a band aid on a cut, hug you, listen to your ugly dreams and cook the meal.
    Merkel is not a mother, no children, but she has this unique ability, in all her blandness, when it counts to be Mutti for a whole nation.
    Merkel is for me a real phenomena. She does not have the looks, her speeches are boring, she is female in a conservative party, from East Germany, she lacks the balls out energy in public.
    She is so fricking average, you would never know she would be there.
    Just walk past her.
    Than she turns out to be a very good leader, probably when this crap is over the most effective leader Germany has ever had.

    Rather Amazing.

    Do you know Bill Withers song "grand Ma's hands "

    That is Merkel
     
  11. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    If the efforts had started a month earlier, wed be seeing rates much more comparable to Japan and South Korea.
     
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  12. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If China had contained the outbreak in Wuhan and lied about the human to human transference we would have zero deaths.
     
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  13. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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    But China....
     
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  14. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    The Cost of Ventilators Just Skyrocketed — And New York Needs Thousands More. “New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo says the price of ventilators has soared from less than $20,000 to more than $50,000.”

    Cuomo said last week that New York state has roughly 12,000 ventilators, but will likely need as many as 40,000 at the projected height of the pandemic. But since no state will remain untouched by the virus, both states and the federal government are now jockeying for ventilators. And that’s pushing prices up.​

    “We’ve created a situation where you literally have hundreds of entities looking to buy the same exact materials basically from the same place, which is China, ironically enough,” Cuomo said.​

    “The ventilators are now over $50,000, if you can find them,” he added. “The ventilators didn’t change that much in two weeks. The prices went up because literally we are driving the prices up. But we need to give our front line, our health care professionals, the supplies they need. And we need to do it now.”​

    Next Up: The wisdom of making one badly-run country your sole supplier of seemingly everything.
     
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  15. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    One thing that will be interesting to watch is how the early predictions match the early results.

    So, for example, the model predicted that 638-781 will die today with 719 as the median. It looks like we will end the day at 726. I presume this means that when they update the projections, then tomorrow's range of 723-913 (median of 832) will move slightly upward. For posterity sake, Friday's total is projected to be 809-1086 (median of 968 ).

    It seems incredibly likely that we will see 1000+ deaths in a day as early as this weekend.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
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  16. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Ford is on it. They will begin shipping in late April. The first shipment will be ~ 1500. No shortages yet. And anesthesia machines are easily converted to ventilators. And a further backup is the inexpensive University of Minnesota ventilator.
     
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  17. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    There is a paper written by Chinese scientists which concludes that the virus came from the intermediate horse shoe bat which is not indigenous to the Wuhan area but was being used to study Corona virus in the Wuhan virology lab.

    Where is Ai Fen?
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
  18. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    FORD's a good company. It was very disappointing to see GM fail when they had the opportunity to step up. Those greedy bastards are only still in business because of the generosity of the US taxpayer. May they be tormented by implacable jock itch.
     
  19. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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    This thread was trying not to be political.
     
  20. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, we are competing with most countries in Europe and just about every other country which can afford to try to prepare for their people.

    The current government projection is that New York will need a little over 9,000 ventilators. I've been listening to daily briefing by Cuomo and other state governors and city mayors trying to get as many ventilators as possible "just in case". They have started to remind me of the toilet paper hoarders. My city's mayor wants to buy 20,000 ventilators, and we have a population 1/8th the size of New York City and far less than New York state. There is no way we need 40-50% as many ventilators and New York when we have 200 cases and less than 10 deaths.

    Every state is expected to hit a peak at a slightly different date, with New York being one of the earliest. If Cuomo really ends up needing more that the 12,000 ventilators he has sitting in a warehouse, then FEMA has 10,000 to distribute where and when needed. Worst case, they can co-vent (hook two patients up to one ventilator) or convert anesthesia machines into ventilators.

    New York's biggest shortage is likely to be in human manpower, mainly people with the skills to actually operate a ventilator or work ICU shifts in general. It also appears that they are short about 70,000 beds. The numbers of projected beds and ventilators on the model get updated daily along with the curves.

    Looks like New York might have wanted to issue the stay at home ordinance earlier than 9 days ago, but that's water under the bridge and hindsight now. I'm afraid that New York and New Jersey will be hardest hit of all the states. :(

    Graph is projection of beds needed, ICU beds needed, and ventilators needed...

    upload_2020-3-31_20-50-6.png
     
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  21. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    No, but I heard of google and a 5 minute search. Blaming Trump for below-90 IQ people is just...ridiculous, even for anti-Trump feelings of the past 3 years.
     
  22. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Yup. Cuomo has a whole bunch of stuff hoarded at a warehouse in Jersey.

    UGH: A food crisis looms as coronavirus forces farms to stay idle and countries hoard supplies.

    Countries most exposed to a rise in food price inflation include those with elevated imports as a share of domestic food supply, such as the Middle East, China, Japan and South Korea, said Fitch Solutions.​

    Economies with weakened currencies, such as India and Indonesia are also exposed, as most commodities are denominated in the dollar on the international market.​

    Hug a US Farmer. Aside from some temporary disruptions as producers and distributors acclimate to the new-but-temporary normal, the US should be fine on the food front.
     
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  23. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Late April will be too late for New York and New Jersey unfortunately. But certainly the manufacture of ventilators will help if other states end up exploding. I think that Ventec/GM partnership is ramped up to build up to 10,000 in April.

    I think FEMA is set up to ship ventilators around the country when and where they are needed, so it's good that different states are predicted to peak at different times.
     
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  24. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    So do you think this mental giant in Arizona came up with this idea all by himself?
    Of course not.
     
  25. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Donor

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    It's becoming painfully obvious that some of the partisans will never set aside politics to work towards a common goal. It gives me a huge case of the sad.
     
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