Trump's approval rating at lowest for any president in their first year.

I said fourth worst. Only three presidents had a worse economic record than Obama.

California chose Hillary. A majority of Americans elsewhere selected Trump...

 

You guys have been breaking the laws for years

 

What are you calling me out one exactly.

I am just pointing out your hypocrisy.

I don't have a side, you do. You are the one who wants to point out he left and claim that the right is holy. I have said that both sides are corrupt and evil as you call it, you just want to claim its the left.

 

but we both know that is an intentional lie. He may have had the 4th worst GDP growth, but he by no means had the 4th worst economic record.

sorry, but it's just the way it is. The American people chose Hillary. The electoral college selected trump.

 

who is "you guys"?

What law is being broken here? Be specific.

 

Why would anyone be dumb enough to trust polling these days? They haven't been right about anything for two years now...

 

Stop,

This was the first line of the article, and were the article title and my thread title originated from. You're using the "Strong Suits" Pollster for his higher economical appraisal which appears later on in the article to help Trump out a bit. You know this. You're trying to trick other posters.

You have to show how Gallup are improperly polling. Oh and not in your opinion like you do in every thread. You actually have to show valid citation stating they are polling improperly. Not you linking sampling sizes and stating your opinion that this means incorrect polling (it doesn't.)
Furthermore: You are citing methodology pages, but not providing valid citation on how those methodology pages are doing something wrong. This is referred to arm-chair theory when dealing with methematical or statistical issues.

Please do not insult my intelligence by bringing up extreme right blog conspiracy theories on oversampling. Oversampling is normal. Weighting is normal. Adjustments are normal. They've been at this for a very long time. You are randomly blogging about them because politics blew up in our culture and you missed the buss on how simple polling works. The 2016, 2012, 2008, etc. polls oversampled and were correct.

I did go back to 2004, but I also used 2016. I'm showing you they are all accurate.

I provided ample citation showing this methodology is normal and doesn't result in messed up polls. In the form of direct data, and from the most reputable research groups around. You have not provided citation showing there is mass polling errors over the last few decades, or even 2016. That's because the 2016 national polling was highly accurate (1.2% error, and correct national opinion winner).

Btw, a little more on this if RCP, 538, Gallup, and Pew weren't enough.

The pollsters have your number.

I also used Pew Research, Monmouth(New), Real Clear Politics, and Gallup. You left these highly reputable sources out of your post. Blog more. The second giving a pure data dump of results and average, which are incontestable.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...-to-study-small-groups-not-bias-poll-results/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oversampling
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2012/09/26/are_media_polls_oversampling_democrats_291216.html

As far as 538 are concerned, you can't just say they are far left to dismiss them. You have to actually show all they are using incorrect data. You must provide valid numerical citation and explanatory citation (so that it isn't just inferences and arm-chair theory) on this huge discovery.

What....I gave massive data sets and extensive sourcing which directly claim what I'm claiming from some of the best pollster and research agencies. You aren't providing any citation for your polling industry shattering claims. You literally lost the debate, and badly.

Gallup - 39% Average (My thread's source)
538 - 39% Average https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
Real Clear Politics - 39% Average https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
(2 supporting sources, with the same exact average, and mass data compilations).

Please offer valid(numerical and explanatory, preferably by research or polling firms) citation that the above sources are incorrect on this matter, or historically incorrect on other matters. You failed to do so in your last post, I'm going to assume you concede.

 

Uhh.......what?


Final Results -- -- -- 48.2 46.1 3.3 1.1 Clinton +2.1
RCP Average 11/2 - 11/7 -- -- 45.5 42.2 4.7 1.9 Clinton +3.3

I will continue to use these highly accurate National Polls.

Regardless of what bloggers incorrectly state.

 

If polls were accurate you wouldn't need RCP. Aside from that only an idiot would think Democrats were paying pollsters to get popular vote data when that isn't how American presidential elections are won. If you choose to believe that tripe, fine, but don't try to deceive the rest of us...

 

This is a thread, article, and poll are about national opinion. The 2016 polls, like nearly every national GE poll before it, was on the mark.

We are not discussing the EC or the election. Or how many news organizations incorrectly used the NA Polls and some inaccurate State Polls in predicting EC wins.

However, I appreciate you not insulting my intelligence by bringing up oversampling conspiracy theories. It's a fresh change.

 

The polls got it wrong, nobody had Trump winning the presidency. I don't mind, keep trusting that nonsense, it will only cause you folks to lose more seats in Nov. It certainly didn't help you guys in the GA special election, or any special election before AL (and that's a whole different animal)...

 

The national polls were correct, and nothing refutes this data.

Final Results -- -- -- 48.2 46.1 3.3 1.1 Clinton +2.1
RCP Average 11/2 - 11/7 -- -- 45.5 42.2 4.7 1.9 Clinton +3.3

Just like Gallup, RCP, and 538 are correct on this 39%.

 

trump supporters get their panties in a twist whenever there is some bad news on trump. they too act like petulant children.

 

That data is useless because it did not reflect the electoral votes that Trump did receive. Like I said, keep believing that idiocy, it will only ensure that Dems lose more elections because they still don't understand proper methodology when it comes to elections. At this point I do not trust today's pollsters to accurately get an answer to what color the sky is...

 

This isn't a EC thread. This is a public opinion thread.

CNN and MSNBC inability to properly use this correct National Data along with questionable State Data, to estimate the Electorate Map, is not my concern.

 

Thankfully, nobody (repeat NOBODY) takes Trump"s Apologists seriously anymore.

And, that is a FACT (that Trump's Apologists are in denial about).

 

Doesn't matter, all polls regarding Trump and politics in general have been proven to be completely inaccurate when it comes to voting. Until these fraudulent pollsters prove they have altered their methodology, nothing they produce should be taken seriously. Its beyond pathetic, completely unprofessional, and truly a disgrace and disservice to the country as a whole...

 

What are you talking about though. The national polls were correct and accurate.

I feel like some of you guys are living in an alternate reality.

CNN and MSNBC inability to properly use this correct National Data along with questionable State Data, to estimate the Electorate Map, is not my concern.

 

This is true. But it is problematic when they try to spread silly blogger conspiracy theories, like how oversampling is used to skew data when it's literally used to make data more accurate.....

This is kind of dangerous. The country already has enough dumb people, we don't need more.

 

None of the polls are correct or accurate, go through the garbage methodology and you will see 100% of the time there is significant liberal over sampling. That means it is either intentional or the pollsters are idiots who don't know how to poll...

 

oh lord.

please jesus save me!

They did oversample. And they ended up correct (with 1% error). What does this tell you about oversampling?

 

Exactly.

Among so many other things that Trump's Apologists have problems understanding, they clearly have no clue about the Polls in 2016.

 

Go on then, provide a national poll that doesn't have liberals over sampled...

 

Alright. Class in in session.

1. Yes. Many used Democrat Oversampling, or it occurs naturally. Both left and right wing leaning polls have used or encountered oversampling. But they all turned out correct. On average, the polls predicted the correct winner, and within an epic 1.2% ERROR MARGIN.

What does this tell you about Oversampling?

2. Oversampling is normal practice, if not expected. It is at times used for more accurate results and adjusted for,

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...-to-study-small-groups-not-bias-poll-results/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oversampling
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2012/09/26/are_media_polls_oversampling_democrats_291216.html

3. Democrats cried about oversampling in 2004. Yet like 2000, 2006, 2008, 2012, and 2016 those national polls were still accurate and correct.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lets-get-few-things-straight-party-id/

TLDR: Pollsters have to smack either (R) or (D) when they cry about oversampling. Because it's dumb.

4. Democrats are over sampled due to reasons like

5. Political Registration =/= Political Identification

http://monmouthpoll.blogspot.com/2016/08/a-poll-samples-party-composition.html?m=1

6. No history of bias, going by the data.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/poll-averages-have-no-history-of-consistent-partisan-bias/

 

Is that suppose to mean something? The first year - the first month - the second month - the 37th week - I know one president that had the worse approval rating in the 7th. month, at 2 o'clock in the afternoon on a Thursday! Wow! Ouch! Whew! But at 6 PM he was back up again ..... Boy! That was a close one huh!