Weather station in Antarctica records high of 65, the continent's hottest temperature ever

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by MrTLegal, Feb 10, 2020.

  1. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Here comes some more "actual science"

    1.3. Attribution of climate changes and impacts
    The evidence for human influence on the climate system has grown since AR4. Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in global mean sea level rise; and it is extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Impacts are due to observed climate change, irrespective of its cause, indicating the sensitivity of natural and human systems to changing climate.

    The causes of observed changes in the climate system, as well as in any natural or human system impacted by climate, are established following a consistent set of methods. Detection addresses the question of whether climate or a natural or human system affected by climate has actually changed in a statistical sense, while attribution evaluates the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to an observed change or event with an assignment of statistical confidence. Attribution of climate change to causes quantifies the links between observed climate change and human activity, as well as other, natural, climate drivers. In contrast, attribution of observed impacts to climate change considers the links between observed changes in natural or human systems and observed climate change, regardless of its cause. Results from studies attributing climate change to causes provide estimates of the magnitude of warming in response to changes in radiative forcing and hence support projections of future climate change (Topic 2). Results from studies attributing impacts to climate change provide strong indications for the sensitivity of natural or human systems to future climate change. {WGI 10.8, WGII SPM A-1, WGI/II/III/SYR Glossaries}
     
  2. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Found you some more "actual science"

    1.3.1. Attribution of climate changes to human and natural influences on the climate system

    It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in GHG concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together (Figure 1.9). The best estimate of the human induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period. GHGs contributed a global mean surface warming likely to be in the range of 0.5°C to 1.3°C over the period 1951 to 2010, with further contributions from other anthropogenic forcings, including the cooling effect of aerosols, from natural forcings, and from natural internal variability (see Figure 1.9). Together these assessed contributions are consistent with the observed warming of approximately 0.6°C to 0.7°C over this period. {WGI SPM D.3, 10.3.1}

    It is very likely that anthropogenic influence, particularly GHGs and stratospheric ozone depletion, has led to a detectable observed pattern of tropospheric warming and a corresponding cooling in the lower stratosphere since 1961. {WGI SPM D.3, 2.4.4, 9.4.1, 10.3.1}

    Over every continental region except Antarctica, anthropogenic forcings have likely made a substantial contribution to surface temperature increases since the mid-20th century (Figure 1.10). For Antarctica, large observational uncertainties result in low confidence that anthropogenic forcings have contributed to the observed warming averaged over available stations. In contrast, it is likely that there has been an anthropogenic contribution to the very substantial Arctic warming since the mid-20th century. Human influence has likely contributed to temperature increases in many sub-continental regions. {WGI SPM D.3, TS.4.8, 10.3.1}

    Anthropogenic influences have very likely contributed to Arctic sea ice loss since 1979 (Figure 1.10). There is low confidence in the scientific understanding of the small observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent due to the incomplete and competing scientific explanations for the causes of change and low confidence in estimates of natural internal variability in that region. {WGI SPM D.3, 10.5.1, Figure 10.16}

    Anthropogenic influences likely contributed to the retreat of glaciers since the 1960s and to the increased surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet since 1993. Due to a low level of scientific understanding, however, there is low confidence in attributing the causes of the observed loss of mass from the Antarctic ice sheet over the past two decades. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic contribution to observed reductions in Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover since 1970. {WGI 4.3.3, 10.5.2, 10.5.3}

    It is likely that anthropogenic influences have affected the global water cycle since 1960. Anthropogenic influences have contributed to observed increases in atmospheric moisture content (medium confidence), to global-scale changes in precipitation patterns over land (medium confidence), to intensification of heavy precipitation over land regions where data are sufficient (medium confidence) (see 1.4), and to changes in surface and subsurface ocean salinity (very likely). {WGI SPM D.3, 2.5.1, 2.6.2, 3.3.2, 3.3.3, 7.6.2, 10.3.2, 10.4.2, 10.6}

    It is very likely that anthropogenic forcings have made a substantial contribution to increases in global upper ocean heat content (0–700 m) observed since the 1970s (Figure 1.10). There is evidence for human influence in some individual ocean basins. It is very likely that there is a substantial anthropogenic contribution to the global mean sea level rise since the 1970s. This is based on the high confidence in an anthropogenic influence on the two largest contributions to sea level rise: thermal expansion and glacier mass loss. Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide has resulted in gradual acidification of ocean surface waters (high confidence). {WGI SPM D.3, 3.2.3, 3.8.2, 10.4.1, 10.4.3, 10.4.4, 10.5.2, 13.3, Box 3.2, TS.4.4, WGII 6.1.1.2, Box CC-OA}
     
  3. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Found you some more "actual science"

    1.3.2. Observed impacts attributed to climate change

    In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Impacts are due to observed climate change, irrespective of its cause, indicating the sensitivity of natural and human systems to changing climate. Evidence of observed climate change impacts is strongest and most comprehensive for natural systems. Some impacts on human systems have also been attributed to climate change, with a major or minor contribution of climate change distinguishable from other influences (Figure 1.11). Impacts on human systems are often geographically heterogeneous because they depend not only on changes in climate variables but also on social and economic factors. Hence, the changes are more easily observed at local levels, while attribution can remain difficult. {WGII SPM A-1, A-3, 18.1, 18.3-6}

    In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality (medium confidence). Glaciers continue to shrink almost worldwide due to climate change (high confidence), affecting runoff and water resources downstream (medium confidence). Climate change is causing permafrost warming and thawing in high-latitude regions and in high-elevation regions (high confidence). {WGII SPM A-1}

    Many terrestrial, freshwater and marine species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances and species interactions in response to ongoing climate change (high confidence). While only a few recent species extinctions have been attributed as yet to climate change (high confidence), natural global climate change at rates slower than current anthropogenic climate change caused significant ecosystem shifts and species extinctions during the past millions of years (high confidence). Increased tree mortality, observed in many places worldwide, has been attributed to climate change in some regions. Increases in the frequency or intensity of ecosystem disturbances such as droughts, windstorms, fires and pest outbreaks have been detected in many parts of the world and in some cases are attributed to climate change (medium confidence). Numerous observations over the last decades in all ocean basins show changes in abundance, distribution shifts poleward and/ or to deeper, cooler waters for marine fishes, invertebrates and phytoplankton (very high confidence), and altered ecosystem composition (high confidence), tracking climate trends. Some warm-water corals and their reefs have responded to warming with species replacement, bleaching, and decreased coral cover causing habitat loss (high confidence). Some impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms have been attributed to human influence, from the thinning of pteropod and foraminiferan shells (medium confidence) to the declining growth rates of corals (low confidence). Oxygen minimum zones are progressively expanding in the tropical Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans, due to reduced ventilation and O2 solubility in warmer, more stratified oceans, and are constraining fish habitat (medium confidence). {WGII SPM A-1, Table SPM.A1, TS A-1, 6.3.2.5, 6.3.3, 18.3-18.4, 30.5.1.1, Box CC-OA, Box CC-CR}

    Assessment of many studies covering a wide range of regions and crops shows that negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts (high confidence). The smaller number of studies showing positive impacts relate mainly to high-latitude regions, though it is not yet clear whether the balance of impacts has been negative or positive in these regions (high confidence). Climate change has negatively affected wheat and maize yields for many regions and in the global aggregate (medium confidence). Effects on rice and soybean yield have been smaller in major production regions and globally, with a median change of zero across all available data which are fewer for soy compared to the other crops. (See Figure 1.11c) Observed impacts relate mainly to production aspects of food security rather than access or other components of food security. Since AR4, several periods of rapid food and cereal price increases following climate extremes in key producing regions indicate a sensitivity of current markets to climate extremes among other factors (medium confidence). {WGII SPM A-1}

    At present the worldwide burden of human ill-health from climate change is relatively small compared with effects of other stressors and is not well quantified. However, there has been increased heat-related mortality and decreased cold-related mortality in some regions as a result of warming (medium confidence). Local changes in temperature and rainfall have altered the distribution of some water-borne illnesses and disease vectors (medium confidence). {WGII SPM A-1}

    ‘Cascading’ impacts of climate change can now be attributed along chains of evidence from physical climate through to intermediate systems and then to people. (Figure 1.12) The changes in climate feeding into the cascade, in some cases, are linked to human drivers (e.g., a decreasing amount of water in spring snowpack in western North America), while, in other cases, assessments of the causes of observed climate change leading into the cascade are not available. In all cases, confidence in detection and attribution to observed climate change decreases for effects further down each impact chain. {WGII 18.6.3}
     
  4. BuckyBadger

    BuckyBadger Well-Known Member

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    False. CO2 was initially formed by gasses from volcanoes.

    The first organisms used anoxygenic photosynthesis.
     
  5. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    I gave you enough actual science to prove both of your demands. If you have any "actual science" that refutes the "hard proof" and "real data" that I have provided to you, then let me know. Until then...

    [​IMG]
     
  6. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Volcanic Activity Compared to Human CO2 Production, on a Yearly Basis.

     
  7. guavaball

    guavaball Well-Known Member

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    Your science merely states humans have increased co2 production.

    It does not say the two key pieces of your argument.

    It does NOT say humans are the primary source of co2 production.

    And it does NOT say CO2 is the primary reason for climate change. You lose again
     
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  8. BuckyBadger

    BuckyBadger Well-Known Member

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    Your data doesn't span enough time. Glaciers have been growing and receding for millions of years. How do you think the rolling hills in WI were formed and why Illinois is so flat? Did humans come along and melt all the glaciers?

    Of course not.

    Like everything else you post, you fail to understand that climate change has been happening for millions of years and long before humans walked the earth.

    What is your real agenda? What do you think we should do about it?
     
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  9. BuckyBadger

    BuckyBadger Well-Known Member

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    And nowhere in there does it say that most of the first organisms on the planet expended CO2 as a waste byproduct and almost none used CO2 as an energy source. Because what you stated is garbage, again. So you went back to deflecting.

    As to your link, then why did we have higher levels of CO2 before humans walked there earth than we do now? Human expel CO2, yet other factors put more CO2 into the atmosphere. Further more, life not only survived, but it evolved. Imagine that. :)

    Are you fearful we are all going to die because of CO2 levels? Sounds like it.
     
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  10. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    I don't see any "actual science" or "real data" or "hard facts" in your post. Let me know when you get some.
     
  11. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    I have tried to explain the "false choice" fallacy to you several times. There is more than one explanation for the causes of an event and just because one event could not be caused by humans millions of years ago does not mean that humans are incapable of being the cause of something today.

    That is a very basic fact that you fail to understand.
     
  12. guavaball

    guavaball Well-Known Member

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    Its not my argument, its yours. You think I don't read your data but I do.

    Go ahead, quote ANY part where it states CO2 is the primary source of climate change or that humans produce more CO2 than any other source on this planet.

    Go on Legal. Show us all those mad science skillz you claim to have. :)
     
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  13. Dispondent

    Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You are being pointless now. You have failed to provide any proof of humans being responsible. Feel free to promote you hoax, just keep your grubby mitts off my wallet...
     
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  14. BuckyBadger

    BuckyBadger Well-Known Member

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    Except, your false choice fallacy argument is just pure garbage. You are just trying to excuse away facts that punch holes in your theories.

    You: Glaciers are melting because of humans.
    Me: Glaciers have been forming and melting for millions of years before humans were ever around.
    You: "false choice fallacy"
    Me: LOL

    That is pretty much where we are at.
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
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  15. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    See posts #388, 393, 396, 399, and 401-405
     
  16. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    You truly do not get this, do you? Let me try it with an analogy.

    You: Smoking cigarettes increases the risk of cancer.
    Me: Humans have died from cancer long before cigarettes existed.
    You: "False Choice Fallacy"
    Me: LOL

    Did that analogy help?
     
  17. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    I already did. You failed to read or acknowledge it. So again, I don't see any "actual science" or "real data" or "hard facts" in your post. Let me know when you get some.
     
  18. BuckyBadger

    BuckyBadger Well-Known Member

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    No, it's just more garbage and it doesn't really convince anyone what you stated in the first post is actually true. You have to post something and defend it with facts which you consistency fail to do then try and rely on silly "false choice fallacy" to try and explain away why the facts don't support your theory.
     
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  19. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Let's try it another way then.

    Why does the fact that glaciers melted millions of years ago mean that humans are incapable of melting glaciers today?
     
  20. Dispondent

    Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No thanks, instead of reviewing you silly claims I'll just wait for proof you pretend you have, let me know when you done playing with tea leaves and have some real science to provide...
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
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  21. BuckyBadger

    BuckyBadger Well-Known Member

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    How does glaciers melting and forming for millions of years equate to the human race being responsible?

    It doesn't.

    You keep trying to twist words and sentences to form "something" of a truth instead of providing facts to support your argument.
     
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  22. guavaball

    guavaball Well-Known Member

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    No you didnt and if you had you could have quoted them.

    All I'm asking is for you to quote ANY link you have that prove both point to support your claim

    #1. That CO2 is the primary source of climate change

    #2. That humans produce the most CO2 over any other source.

    Very simple Legal
    Now we will all watch you not do it. :)
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
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  23. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    I already did. You failed to read or acknowledge it. So again, I don't see any "actual science" or "real data" or "hard facts" in your post. Let me know when you get some.

    But I will ask you in a different way.

    Do you think it is possible that you will ever be convinced that humans are almost certainly responsible for most of the current warming trend?
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
  24. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    You are the one twisting, but I will answer your question before demanding that you answer mine.

    The fact that glaciers melted previously does not mean that humans are automatically the cause of the current melting. They could be though and that is the point I want you to acknowledge by answering the question you dodged.

    Here is the question.

    Why does the fact that glaciers melted millions of years ago mean that humans are incapable of melting glaciers today?

    If you dont want to answer that question, then please answer the following: Do you think it is possible that you will ever be convinced that humans are almost certainly responsible for most of the current warming trend?
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
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  25. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    All of those posts contain actual proof. Please review them and let me know if you have any questions.

    Or you can just tell me that it is impossible to ever convince you that humans are almost certainly responsible for the majority of the currently warming climate and I will move on with my life.
     
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