Discussion in 'Member Casual Chat' started by Pollycy, Dec 28, 2020.
I expect inflation. My advice to everyone - invest into real estate to preserve your wealth.
Not a bad idea at all! We're making lots and lots more human beings, but -- we ain't making any more DIRT! And, as we have seen, housing prices, even in really crappy cities and towns, are skyrocketing (and, interestingly, so is the homeless population....).
Yep - buy a house with as high of a mortgage payment as you can afford. In 3-5 years the inflation will result in easy raises, which will make it much easier to pay the mortgage. Also, 2.7% interest makes it possible that the inflation will literally diminish the real value of the loan, which means free wealth for you as the real estate will hold the value (as you mentioned, land is a limited resource).
I currently live in a city but invested in 67 acres of dirt and scrub that nobody else wanted ... a 15 mile dirt road to get there and no utilities ... I am making it livable and productive ...
sorry off topic, but I have lived in cities most of my life and dreamt of living off the grid for about 30 years now ... another 11 months to get it all up and running ...
We are building our brand new home in a popular state too.
Those who see the opportunity will get a boost on the food chain of our society in the coming years. Those who didn’t act will remain squarely where they are today.
You silly Americans!
First, when Joe Biden said he would be president of all Americans, he failed to mention that President Kwasniewski said the same thing about Poles in his campaign - in 1995.
Secondly, as if anyone did not know, small, systematic, widespread financial assistance optimises budgets, rationalises spending and improves the economy. From such "pocket money," which is given systematically and universally, inflation holds in check, economic growth rises, unemployment declines, consumption falls, savings grow, and the middle class. . . expands. How do I know? Because in Poland in 2016 the conservatives (it was an idea of one liberal) introduced the 500+ program (every month 500 PLN for each child - a family has for example three children - gets 1500 PLN). It's not much money. Thanks to this conservatives in Poland won some 7 major ellections.
The minimum wage here is over 2000PLN per month, and the average wage is almost 4000PLN). It was said that the budget is not elastic - "not made of gum" and that it is communism, but it turned out otherwise and no significant party in Poland can imagine functioning without 500+. 1USD is about 4PLN, but by American standards it would have to be 300USD for each child per month. And VOILA! Miracles do happen. Especially since it's no miracle. Suddenly it appears that this is not Marxist real aid, but small, systematic, universal financial help - a centre-left idea. It's too bad you don't understand that, because no one understood it here either - somehow that allows the economy to lean on its own inertia as well.
Yet the conservatives in Poland did a step back in economy. They introduced "thirteen" (like thirteenth month payment). Each pensioner gets once a year 1000PLN. It is not systematic, nor small, and rather not "for everyone" - and it did cause inflation. People acted like someone's gonna take that money away from them, so they ran to shops and corporation made a "jump" on this money. They introduced aggresive add campaigns and raised prices - causeing inflation. Yet the inflation in Poland was 2%, and now it's 3,5%, which appears to be better. People can afford vaccations and have a lot more savings. Two steps forward - one step back.
A very well constructed post and it bears much consideration! I would only add that most American have no idea what "PLN" means, so I'll just mention that "PLN" is the abbreviation for the Zlotych -- the "Zloty", which is the official currency in the nation of Poland.
For comparison, one Zloty = .22 euro, and this fluctuates every day. Also, today, one Zloty = .27 USD (American Dollar).
THANX! I kinda regret this "silly Americans". Eitherway thanx.
In spite of wanting to act like we are so 'worldly-wise', it is laughable to see how little "silly Americans" really do understand about a planet full of people outside our own borders....
The US already has Child Tax Credit. It was $1,000 per year till Trump raised it to $2,000. Biden was talking about raising that even further to $3,600 per child per year.
As for 13th paycheck - most American workers are getting paid every 2 weeks, which translates to 26 paychecks, or 13 months of pay.
The inflation is a real concern though - mortgages (loans for homes) have interest rate of about 2.7% now. If the US inflation hits 3.5% then the owners who owe the money will end up becoming the beneficiary of the inevitable wealth transfer that happens every time inflation spikes - their loan values will diminish more than what they’ll pay in interest. Also, the wealth is generally transferred from those with low-valued skills (minimum wage workers) and those who are on fixed income, like retirees and people with disabilities.
So, inflation is not a bad thing. You just need to make sure that you will be on the beneficiary side.
I put a lot of confidence in the assessments of Axel Weber, a German economist who is currently a board member and chairman of Swiss investment bank and financial services company, UBS Group AG. Truly, a man of astounding intelligence with the ability to understand central banks from the inside-out.
Herr Weber has stated that it would be healthy for interest rates to increase quickly toward 2.75% -- 3% and continue on a trajectory to allow real growth to really spread its wings. Maybe after most people get vaccinated and go back to work, we can finally get the central banks to stop all this phony 'bond buying' "Kabuki dance" and stop (STOP) printing any more imaginary money!
This may mean that the grossly overblown stock markets will have to return to realistic valuations after their 'free-money' euphoria begins to fade, but such gains of a short-term nature rarely end in the economy of a nation's working middle-class doing well. Look at what has happened for the past 13 years to people who have savings accounts! They've been screwed to DEATH while the stock market gamblers have had a field day!
Good luck on the house ... if you ever need any advice on alternative or supplemental energy, drop me a dime ... I'm an ME and have loads of exp in water, electricity, insulation, heat exchange etc ... cheers ...
i make too much money to qualify for a stimulus check
"When governments fear the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny." Thomas Jefferson.
In Poland, there are not that many problems with mortgage loans - well, except for the fact that the banks cheated the public and offered loans in Swiss francs, which ruined part of the population - but now you can sue the bank and probably win. As for the child tax credit - there was a party that advocated abolishing the 500+ program and replacing it with a tax credit. They were not taken seriously, by the way, that party no longer exists. Please understand that the tax credit is not a small, systematic and universal financial aid. You get the tax credit once a year and it's not pocket money. Nor does everyone get it. Nor it is systematic.. After all, once a year you have money to spend - most of the time it is spent en masse - people act as if someone is going to take that money away from them - they run to the store and buy.
Corporations make a heist on that money, raise prices and force inflation. Hence something that will have to be given anyway, both for the giver and the taker, and for the economy better given in small, systematic installments for all. Better, because one owns the money longer.
Most people just save the money so it doesn't help the economy. Its better to improve unemployment benefits because those people are already out of money. Most of the stimulus won't be direct checks but goes to government spending that will help create jobs. But it can take time for get these jobs created.
Savings do improve economy. For the crisis to exist one thing has to be done - regular people don't have money, so they do not buy. If they do not buy, nothing is being produced and companies fire people so less and less people have money and the cycle goes on. But if people do have some savings - they have time to search for a job and retrain - so they have money to live without a job for some few months even. If it's a common practice, a country's economy is much more stable and the economic growth is more probable to rise. Yet the best method is basic income. Say one gets that $100 per two weeks for each child - that's a leap forward, and there are examples like here in Poland that it works. Since 500+ (before COVID-19) we had economical growth over 5% and it was at a time the third in the world. With stable inflation at 2% and practically structural unemployment at 5%. The economy was growing. Of course people "unworthy" also got the money - 'cause everyone got it, but it was a real stimulus and people did not resign of jobs - 500+ was not enough to live without a job for most of us. People started to rationalise spendings and optimise their budgets - we started to spend the money smarter and thanx to that the prosperity grew.
Say 15% of people have IQ over 115 - only these people can do best and know how to rationally operate. Of course people with less IQ can be smart about money but it's rather rare.
The centre-left main idea is called "luck egalitarianism". It means 1/3 of things that happen to you is up to you, 1/3 is up to your closest enviroment (like family) and 1/3 is up to the "global aspect". That means leaving people behind by the state gives them only 30-60% of potential success in life at best. It's the governement's issue to help just a bit (not give real marxist aid, but just a little financial help) to everyone. In this world there is only a little bit more good than evil and this little bit makes the whole difference. Real aid spoils, but this systematic, global and little help is a real stimulus.
I understand - some vallues seem to be like iron vallues - tough, simple and rough - free market, total self-determination, zero inflation, zero unemployment etc. etc. Yet reality verifies that tough statements - it appears they always need a correction. Let me give you an example.
A few centuries ago, Fibonacci's "golden mean" math was terribly concerned. Harmony was found in everything and practically this mathematical harmony became a religion. Several planets of our solar system have even been found thanks to the predictions of this theory. Only that there was a problem - the positions of the planets were always shifted - by some strange, incompatible correction. So Fibonacci's theories about looking for harmony in everything in the universe were abandoned, and it was a good move because it made science get a boost. This does not mean that harmony is not there. It is, but it always needs correction.
The same goes with Coca-Cola who just averaged stats in creating the perfect taste - they did not add correction and lost a lot of money. They had to get back to "classic" or "original" taste. Just because they wantend to keep the stats exactly in the middle.
Averaging always leads to rapid erosion of standards.
I ment averaging without correction always leads to rapid erosion of standards. Sorry for flooding, but Edit disappears after a while.
Child tax credit in the US is part of the payroll tax calculation. Any worker who provides correct accurate children count and their ages to their employer get child tax credit every paycheck.
You seem to make a lot of assumptions about how things work in the US without doing any actual research.
I have 2 kids myself, so I immediately felt and benefited from Trump doubling the credit and will benefit from Biden’s increase, which seems to be very likely. Trust me, the tax credit is available to all tax payers and they don’t have to wait till the end of the year to take advantage of it. Even self-employed entrepreneurs can use it when they calculate their quarterly tax prepayments.
Also, for the record - while I’m against universal income that some leftist countries are trying to implement, I do support generous child tax credits and support elimination of welfare in favor of such credits. I’m also moving to another state soon because of the way schools are funded - in my current state you can send your children only to schools that are in your district. Getting into another school is nearly impossible. The state that I’m moving to has a ton of high quality, state sponsored charter schools, and in that state any child can attend any public school as long as the parents provide transportation. I think these policies are the only ones that truly fight racism and segregation as the rich parents in richer neighborhoods allow parents from other districts to enroll their kids in the richer school as long as the parents are willing to put extra effort, like giving their kid a ride.
Biden is extending unemployment bennies through September, and that will probably be extended again (with the new government fiscal year) through the end of 2021. Everybody said ol' Joe would be "Obama 2.0", and that is already coming to pass. During Comrade Obama's regime, many people 'worked the system' and managed to get 'unemployment' handouts for THREE UNINTERRUPTED YEARS -- and this was AFTER the so-called "Great Recession" was over, and without anything else going on, like a pandemic disease!
"An object at rest stays at rest." -- Sir Isaac Newton's "Law of Inertia"....
The people who got unemployment benefits for three years were very rare. Mass long-term unemployment does a number on the economy and I'm glad benefits were extended.
I can't bitch too much about unemployment being extended through September. The virus does at least provide a plausible excuse for doing this, whereas Obama shelling out unemployment welfare year after year, EVEN AFTER THE RECESSION ENDED, was total bullshit which only encouraged people to be parasites, but, to always vote DEMOCRAT....
The ratio of job applicants to jobs was like 1 to 7 during the great recession, and that doesn't include the number of people who had given up. Cutting off unemployment benefits means less consumer spending and would have hurt jobs and the recovery.
Man, I remember those years!
I was a bookkeeper and needed an accounting assistant. We were going to pay $12/hour - ridiculously small amount. And I had people with masters in accountancy and CPAs applying. 6 years after that a job posting like that would yield only low-level high school grads.
Of the people I know supposed to get a physical check (or dreaded debit card), not a single one have gotten theirs yet. Only the direct deposit people have gotten it. All of them say the where's my stimulus thing on the website says that their payment was scheduled to be sent out January 6. I am not sure it would take the USPS 20 days to deliver them since it certainly didn't take them 20 days to get me my first car payment bill
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