What do you think will happen in North Korea?

Not what you WANT to happen, but what you think will happen.

At it stands, the USA has moved attack ships close to the peninsula. There's no telling what Trump will do, no telling how much or how little provocation would be necessary, or when he'll do it. I think we all know that Trump isn't the type to engage in endless, fruitless diplomacy. SOMETHING will happen. I don't think Kim Jong-Un will be in power one year from now. I think North Korea, perhaps decades from now, will have opened up it's doors to the great relief of it's population and will be on the same positive path that South Korea took following WWII.

China has already imposed economic sanctions on Korea, and has said they will stop supplying them with oil if they cross certain lines. China has moved 150,000 troops to the border. They are said to be there to stop refugees, but they would be convenient for any purpose. China has also promised to bomb North Korea if any of their nuclear tests indirectly affect Chinese soil.

Japan is conducting military drills with the United States and is our close ally and would probably send ships if conflict broke out.

The United States will be strengthening South Korea's missile defense systems just in case.

I don't believe Russia will play any active role in defending North Korea.

If North Korea decided to attack with all it's might, it might inflict lots of damage, especially on Seoul, but it would be a short war.

It is also a possibility that Kim Jong-Un will be assassinated.

At worst, I think this may go down in history as the Second Korean War. Not WWIII.

 

My guess is that as there is a celebration about to happen in North Korea next week (relatives of their leader would have been 105 yo) he'll celebrate with a couple of fireworks. That will be the trigger for Trump to act.

Bombers from Guam first, surgical attacks from planes off the Carl Vinson, NK subs as well will be targetted. But it bettet be relentless as NK has conventional firepower to strike Japan and of course SK....plus a hand full of nuclear devices.

Seoul will be flattened.

In my opinion, its better to happen now than in 4 years time when San Francisco is under direct threat.

Russia wont get involved. China will ocvupy North Korea once its messed up.

I dont want a war. But the world is tired of tyrants that threaten mankind that were born with a pop gun in their hand.

 

When it comes to nukes, better a pre-emptive strike than a retaliatory one.

 

I think many people, myself included, will be watching that celebration on Saturday. I don't think Trump is stupid enough (I'm a Trump supporter) to start a war over a firework and he definitely would lose support from the international community if he did.

They are ramping up their anti-missile defenses in South Korea, so I don't think Seoul will be entirely flattened.

Yes, the time is now. The time was probably 10 years ago but we all know *****-ass Obama wasn't gonna do **** and Bush was too distracted.

What do you make of South Korea welcoming a Russian ship in their ports? I read this in another article posted on this site. For some reason, it hasn't been reported too heavily by American news. (I am American).

I think the prospect of Chinese occupation in interesting and likely. I think it's a good idea. China is a lot different than it was in 1950. They want to see a stabilized region. I think perhaps China, the USA, South Korea, and maybe Japan will oversee the introduction of the new North Korean government once Kim Jong-Un is ousted/murdered.

You know, this all could have been taken care of in 1950 if China didn't intervene in that war. What were they thinking?

 

Very true, but that is an outrageous and humongous step to use the first nuclear bomb since 1945.

There are advanced missile defense systems that would hopefully knock down a North Korean attempt. Obviously, I'm not on the inside of the intelligence community so I don't know how much they know or don't know about North Korea's nukes and I have also read that these missile defense systems are not always accurate. Perhaps North Korea could find a way to sneak one or two through.

In any event, the reign of Kim Jong-Un is coming to an end and the world should thank the USA, but they won't.

 

Actually, when you think about it something nasty in a phial inside a suitcase strategically left in any city you care to mention could do as much damage?

I think he's mad enough to ignore the USA and that only China can influence his actions. I'm just grateful I don't have to use his barber!

 

He couldn't ignore the USA for long. It's a good thing that China seems to be on our side. I am not naive enough to believe those 150,000 troops on the border are just to intercept refugees.

 

Which would make it a 'who will blink first' stand-off, and he might (would?) take advantage of the interregnum. As you say, let's hope China can pull something out of the hat?

 

What interregnum do you speak of? My understanding is the definition of that word is "the period between a regime change."

Are you referring to after Jong-Un is gone? Or are you referring to the situation in South Korea? And you said "he might" take advantage of the interregnum. Who are you referring to?

I do believe that China will put China's interests first, and that is to have a stabilized region with no madmen with nuclear weapons. I believe they are sensible at this point in time.

In any event, SOMETHING is about to happen that is unprecedented in world history. Never has a major power tried to oust someone from power that had nuclear weapons to defend themselves. It's kind of like Iraq, but with the potential for deadlier consequences.

 

Kim Jong-Un on one side...

...Donald Trump on the other side...

...and you ask, "What do you think will happen...?"

Two nut case, run-amok egos facing off...

...damn near anything might happen...almost none of which would be to the benefit of people anywhere on the planet.

The thing is, though...

...the people of North Korea more or less have Kim as their leader through no choice of their own.

We...INCREDIBLY...have Donald Trump because we insisted in an election that he be our leader.

 

Well Trump seems to be doing a very good job of containing unstable nations with powerful weapons. He acted immediately on Syria. He put Iran "on notice" which they will sure listen to now that he's attacked Syria, and he's about to take down the awful North Korean regime. I don't think he's a nutcase.

I suppose Hillary would have done better? Or perhaps Jill Stein? We'd be appeasing North Korea left and right.

North Korea is a very weak nation. They have NOTHING besides weapons. China has already cut off imports of coal from them and has said they would stop sending them oil if they continue with their weapons programs, which we all know they will do.

It's a huge benefit of everyone on the planet, with the exception of those that will die making it happen. Hopefully, that will be relatively few, especially for South Korea's sake. Have you read about the THAAD missile defense system being deployed in South Korea. We have many ways of stopping their missiles. North Korea will launch nearly their entire stockpile all at once and be out of the war.

 

Are you going to volunteer in army to participate in that war? ^^

 

No. What's your point?

 

Maybe are you going to make huge donations for US military? Or join a some sort of support battalion, be cleaning ships, or cooking for troops, maybe helping with distribution of supplies?

Or are you going to sit home and argue on the internet for Trump to send other people's children to die in North Corea, killing there children of corean people?

 

What are YOU going to do? For one, I have a spinal cord injury and wouldn't pass a physical, but that's not really the point.

 

Sorry, I've always thought an interregnum was a period between one moment in time and the next; 'interim' would be a better word; the period between declaring the conditions of hostilities and the beginning of them.

I can't disagree with anything you said in the remainder of your post, though - scary times indeed. Oh and one more thing - yer ordinary 'man on the Moscow omnibus' seems to be happy enough with Mr Putin?

 

I would recommend opening negotiations and offering North Corea a program of cooperated drills with Japan, USA and South Corea. If they deal bad with economy - and I am sure they do - to offer a cooperation in that sphere too. Not 'topple' their government, but give it space to change - and basically ruin the ideology of NC being 'surrounded by enemies'. Make proposals, benefitial for their government - but not fitting in their propaganda, and basically - let their ideologic shell to break from inside.

 

ROK will support with troops some China and then all US Marines to So. Korea then the war can starting.

 

Of course, there is always an alternative:

 

NK will do a scorched earth policy even with out Kim ,many will die and our armchair generals in the 101 division of the chicken hawk brigade of key-boardists will be cheering

 

Its just posturing. I'm more surprised by the Chinese reaction

 

I don't think it's just posturing. Trump will not co-exist with a nuclear North Korea. China agrees.

North Korea is not about to suspend all weapons tests and production.

 

It will and would be short, usa with south Korea would probably take out NK in 24 hrs, with a full out naval, air, army assault on the north, Kims inner circle people would end up taking him out, if UScstrikes don't, it would be a major debacle. NK may get a few good kicks in but that's it, and you may have a refugee crisis of epic proportions after that into the south since China will close its borders north with the 150+ thousand troops.

 

"A few good kicks..." huh?

North Korea has extraordinarily destructive weapons within easy striking distance of Seoul...a metropolis of 20,000,000 people.

The last thing in the world we need is to make a smug mistake in that area. We do not need the "you'll do what I tell you do do" mentality at work there.

We hit a single airfield in Syria with 60 Tomahawk missiles...and the Syrians were flying missions out of that field later in the day.

 

Yes a few good ones, I'm sure NK will hit Seoul, and there will and would be casualties, no doubt, but the North will suffer far more devastatingly. And if there's more strikes in Syria, I'm sure the damage next time round will be far more significant than this one.