Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by LafayetteBis, Jul 31, 2019.
UK also wanted no part of it so no UK tax money was used to bail out Greece.
There will be no brexit on 31st October because the land border will be open.
..I think you are absolutely correct. Economies find an equilibrium and an event of this magnitude throws economists and markets into a state of confusion as they cannot model with any degree of certainty since the algorithms they use cannot be tweaked with comparable data. Of course there will be issues if the UK leaves the EU Economic Union but then a new equilibrium will be achieved and markets and economists will be able to adjust their views and models accordingly. The time frame will probably be medium to long term; maybe 5 to 10 years. But it is interesting listening to pundits and commentators churning out their views with the real shrills getting the most airtime...just like the AGW lobby I guess...doom and gloom sells.
I think this is something that will be chewed over for years to come. I think that its a culmination of a number of political and economic circumstances in particular a disengagement from the concept of globalisation which has been a convenient tool of markets in order to maximise shareholder value in a company but has rather left behind certain sections of the population in terms of their social and economic aspirations. The UK has really only been a halfhearted member of the EU; joining the EEC in 1973 only as an economic union which suited us at the time despite certain apprehensions from Unions and political groups. The morphing from an economic treaty into a quasi-Kantian legal, political and social experiment based on cosmopolitanism is for me another thing entirely.
..I think maybe you are right. However, when one is asked a question by the Government of the day one can only respond to the question asked...perhaps the hubris of Cameron got the better of him and thus its his inflated ego that should be blamed for the present situation.
Brexit can show others a way to save themselves @Montegriffo we must uphold our ability to leave the bloc, not shred up Article 50.
Article 50 needs protecting even more during Brexit so all of us may use it to leave the bloc if they want to.
UK and US moving rapidly for big trade deal.
It is certainly true that news outlets search for hyperbolic voices. And ,after all, we humans want to see this sort of thing.... weather in the colosseum, or gawking at a collision on the side of the freeway
Imo, the opponents of brexit initially did not take the issue seriously.... and then became flustered with anxiety as they began to realize they might actually lose! And, yes, they tried to spread doom and gloom to carry the day. But, it is well to remember that there are events that can have catastrophically bad outcomes... and very often those outcomes can only be seen as through a glass darkly. The russian revolution, wwI, hitler, vietnam, the 2008 recession.... etc. anyone warning about the looming disaster would have deemed like a doom and gloomer.... and likely they would not have been exactly accurate in their predictions..... but those factors did not insulate us from the bad outcomes
Certainly there is significant over reach..... otoh, imo there are aspects of the eu that are not only beneficial.... they are inexorable. If europe wants to be a world power.... they have to have a consolidated voice. For example suppose the usa separated into individual countries along state lines.... the impacts of that would be beyond enormous...we certainly would not be 50 super powers. Not politically. Not militarily, and not economically. There is a reason that corporations tend to consolidate into mega corporations
Interesting thought.... but there are so many moving parts at play in any event..... it only satisfies our need for simplicity to isolate a single factor, albeit the most salient
I think that is one of the issues to be considered with the EU. IMHO you have an ideology struggle between France and Germany for hegemony - France has issues both social and economic and a short term fix would be to bolster up its economy with funding Southern European high end civil engineering projects and military technology/weapons production using German money contracted to French/German JV enterprises. I take your point about the US fragmenting and not becoming 50 super-powers, however, fundamentally you are all "Americans"! Whereas, the EU are a group of disparate nations rammed together via a treaty basically ram-raiding German cash in order to justify the EU social and political dream as espoused by France. Don't forget that the EU is a highly political entity not just an economic union. The German economy has the jitters at the moment so it will be interesting to see how Germany will react to France and the rest of the EU when EU funding budgets are reviewed sucking cash from Germany for its wet dreams following the withdrawl of the UK
Yes, but we were not always “americans”
Before the revolution there wad a strong feeling of being individual states. And in fact, the first attempt to come together (the articles-of confederation) fell apart precisely because of exactly the factors that you are pointing out re europe
Yes, and similar things resulted in the american civil war where the industrial north had dramatically different policy views than the agrarian south
I confess ignorance about all that
But would say that even within the usa to this day.... different regions have dramatically different interests
We have very expensive farm subsidies Which are of no interest to me, i also would be happy to have much lower “defense” spending. I think gay rights are a good thing. I think there should be separation of church and stare......But people in other regions have different views on these issues.
There is never going to be a time when we all agree. Never the less, i am willing to accept stuff i dislike because in general i think the advantages of the USA out weigh the things i dislike
Very good answer.
The jitters are everywere. The trade war the US has started and Brexit are now coming home. France Germany Belgium Netherland and Luxemburg are the central powers of the EU, in politics and in economics. At the present one has to leave Italy out ( Very interesting developments there, Salvini might have overreached).
It is not a struggle for hegemony between France and Germany, but about how fast the EU should move forward. Except under Kohl, Germany was always hesitant to take the political leadership and happy to leave it to France. Its the same thing now, Merkel is a slow decider, Macron wants things to happen now.
Germany and France signed this year the new Friendship contract, it is a blue print for what France and Germany want to see as the next step in the EU. Macron wanted that new contract, not Merkel.
The previous contract, was the blue print for the EU and the EEC..
The funding hole the UK leaves, is not that big, because the EU will not have to subsidy all those folks in the UK.
What will it be 4 or 5 billions, 5.5 at best.
That is truly peanuts, even if Germany would pay it all.
The UK had a vote in it, in the council, but it is a Euro matter and it is the EURO countries who established and financed the Organizations.
None Euro countries were not asked to contribute, despite having a vote in the council.
Apparently you do not understand how the EU and the Euro Zone interact.
you think? Germany basically runs the show....France tries to assert itself but needs the money...IDK
It really was a Macron wet dream full of whimsical desires and fanciful thoughts thought don't you think....a mission statement at best. What does it actually mean in reality? In reality it seems to marginalise (if that's the right word?) the rest of the EU as it lays down the proposal for almost a two tier EU...Germany France and, well, the rest. The Aachen treaty seems to encapsulate the dysfunctionality of the EU in that two of its leading countries seem to need to reaffirm their marriage vows...this generally happens as a symbolic gesture when couples are going through a crisis?
You seem to be completely alien to the very concept of the EU not actually mattering.
How does me saying the bailout agreed wasn't right to save the single currency suggesting that the Euro being saved was worth it?
To save the EU, going to change Article 50 so countries can't leave like Article 125 was changed so countries can own other country's debt.
No not really, the treaty has some very practical means and streamlines cross border operations, for example.
Some towns and cities have grown so much, that they have to utilizes cross border utilities. This is a very lengthy process, going from capital to capital and the different way those 2 countries are organized. Now those communities can work it out between each others. Joint water works, joint sewer plants and so. The treaty will stream line the organizations between those countries, so they work the same.
It includes now that from the community level on politicians have to meet, cross border, and are enabled to work to gather to solve problems, without having to go through the capitals, than the states and so on.
Sure there are some wet dreams, like the language thing, German as second language in France and French as second language in Germany taught in schools.
Germany and France will now coordinate their foreign policies, will take some time for sure, or parliament groups like defense orfinance or wat ever will meet on regular base and try to coordinate their work.
The Aachen treaty shows that France and Germany are moving closer together.
Aachen was not chosen by accident, mind you.
Sure now they have to put some beef on the bones of the contract. If they do that and France and Germany show, moving even closer together has benefits and works. I bet we will see similar contracts all over Europe.
Financial experts warned against a single currency, and when they were right, the EU changed the rules just to save the EU from what experts warned against.
The EU matters very much, 500 million people and a GDP as large as the US and free trade contracts with over 70 partners.
It matters very much.
Same for the Euro zone countries in the EU, the Euro matters because it represents so many countries and such a huge GDP volume.
The Euro countries represent a special zone within the EU, because some countries did not choose the Euro and that was agreed on by the EU countries.
All of them mind you.
The Euro countries with the permission of the EU council, including the UK, created this special fund/tool, to help Euro countries in need.
Because it was EU Euro countries who were going belly up.
This tool was created because of 125, because no European country could have helped Portugal or Spain and later Greece.
Nobody was forced to contribute to the fund, or take on liabilities, some Euro countries opted out.
125 prevents 1 country to step in and take over, which is good. But the EU found out in 2009 it needs a tool to prevent any Euro country to declare bankruptcy.
I get that you think the EU needing trade and partnerships matter. I get that that's what you think.
Can not an exiting country get a trade deal or partnership too without the EU?
Trump seems to think UK can. Just because the EU has these deals doesn't mean a country who leaves the EU won't.
The EU needs these partnerships, but so?
Does it make it right?
Another safeguard to ensure no EU country goes bankrupt is to kick it out of the EU if it can't afford it.
You just seem alien to the concept of the EU not mattering. Because the EU has a trade deal, doesn't mean a country who leaves it won't.
France and Germany don't equate to a market as big as America and since when did many European countries have any money?
You forget that @gnoib
Where do we stop saving the EU?
Do we stop it at Brexit?
Keep Article 50 so other nations can leave the EU if they wish?
Or not even there.
At what point does this project not need saving?
The US has no money either, is plain bankrupt. It only gets money because it is to big to fail.
The EU is a market as big as the US, its not just Germany or France, its a lot more.
Brexit is actually good for the EU. The EU does not need any saving, it will take care of its self. Has already progressed beyond Brexit.
How many major free trade agreements were signed since the UK voted.
Keep Article 50 by all means, its not the US dictatorship, its free countries.
Tell the EU to not put up a border after Brexit.
If the UK leaves the customs union and has different customs, then I can see why EU and UK would need a border. I am no way advocating for a customs union with the EU, perhaps one Irish backstop would be is to give Ireland a vote on an EU border or remaining in the EU but using UK's customs on the island of Ireland, giving Ireland 'The best of Both Worlds' like a Hong Kong to Beijing, Republic of Ireland to Brussels.
That will be very tricky to play out. The Republic of Ireland did not participate in the brexit vote. They were doing what they do within the EU, then another state the UK decides to leave.
I don't see as how the Republic would be that obliged to make changes to their arrangements in those circumstances.
UK customs on the island of Ireland, the practicalities of that are very tricky.
It'll make Ireland special, but no one should force it on to them; If the EU are forcing a hard border (which they are) then to stop a hard border, make Ireland the best of both worlds/EU membership without EU customs.
Give Ireland a vote to choose for themselves between EU hard border or aligning with UK customs but being in the EU. Ireland aligning with UK customs is the only way to ensure no hard border on the island of Ireland, and EU would be breaking the Good Friday Agreement, not UK because it is EU calling for the need for one if UK isn't in a customs arrangement. Besides, UK and Ireland are close in culture and in the British Isles not physically attached to anything but each other, so having this part of Europe in another post Brexit deal customs arrangement with somebody else shouldn't be that hard to implement - Then Ireland can cash in to be 'a foot into the EU' but able to free trade with Brexit in any new customs free trade deal.
Could make Dublin a hub like Hong Kong.
Who or what is to 'give Ireland a vote'?
A hard border is what follows the UK choice.
The breaking of the GFA is what follows the UK choice.
Ireland has two feet in the EU, and the UK choice doesn't mean one foot has to be forced out.
Close in culture may relate to language, but politically the Republic are a long way from a monarchy with an unelected house and a country ruled for centuries by the same establishment.
You mention trade as if the whole debate is about money. The Republic of Ireland puts the peace process ahead of money.
A large part of this debate is about a victory for British racism, and a yearning for old colonialism.
Separate names with a comma.