Economy to grow at 5.4% rate in first quarter, Atlanta Fed tracker shows

Incorrect. Why do you parrot lies fed to you by hacks and never check facts for yourself?

Look here: https://www.statista.com/statistics...-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/

And here: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

You can see with YOUR OWN EYES that we had several quarters which were at or above 4 percent growth while Obama was President, including one quarter which was 5.2%.

 

Household debt deleveraged for 7+ years, and just recently started rising again.

That's actually one reason why the economy feels good at the moment: The consumer is tired of saving and is finally willing to spend again. Thus, saving rates are quickly heading to 0. Trump is just fueling this trend with the unpaid-for tax cuts.

 

The Dow has dropped 500 points today, and almost a thousand points for the week.

I hope this does not continue.

 

I disagree. We cannot constantly deflect pain. It only makes the next one bigger.

We should have allowed the crooked and stupid financial institutions to fail, and sold them off to institutions with better business models. A brief nationalization like Sweden did in the early 90s.

In the last crash, we talked of banks which were Too Big To Fail.

In the next crash, we will be talking about banks which are Too Big To Save.

 

It is time to watch for bond holders rushing for the exits.

 

If nobody wants to borrow or can borrow money, banks have to charge to keep the money safe -- i.e. negative interest rates. it is a supply and demand issue, nothing the Fed can influence over the long run. If at all, they may have kept interest rates too high after the crash.

 

As the long nightmare of the Obama Reign of error ends,
BLS: Wage growth finally hitting the accelerator as economy adds 200,000 jobs!



The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report. The US economy added 200,000 jobs in January, beating market expectations:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 200,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing. …

In January, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the fourth consecutive month. The number of unemployed persons, at 6.7 million, changed little over the month.

Education and health services the biggest gainer (38K). Manufacturing added 15,000 jobs last month. Construction did better with 36,000 added jobs, demonstrating a consistent demand for expansion of business and residential facilities, a good sign especially in the winter months.

The growth in wages in 2017, however, outshines the job addition levels:

In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents to $26.74, following an 11-cent gain in December. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 75 cents, or 2.9 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 3 cents to $22.34 in January.

Most of this growth took place in the second half of 2017; it’s also the first indication in 9 years that the labor market is actually getting competitive.

The robust employment report underscored the strong momentum in the economy at the start of the year. Economists say job gains are being driven by buoyant domestic and global demand.

The Associated Press’ Christopher Rugaber points out that the future indicators look bright indeed:

The pay gains suggest that employers are increasingly competing for a limited pool of workers. Raises stemming from Republican tax cuts and minimum wage increases in 18 states also likely boosted pay last month. …

Most other recent economic data have also been encouraging. Factories, for example, expanded rapidly in January, according to a survey of purchasing managers, in part because a weaker U.S. dollar and solid growth overseas have boosted U.S. exports.

And many Americans appear confident enough to buy homes: Sales of existing houses reached their highest level in 11 years in 2017. At the same time, would-be buyers are struggling to find suitable homes because so few properties are available for sale. The demand for housing helped lift home building in 2017 to its fastest pace in a decade. Construction companies added 210,000 jobs last year, the most in two years.

 

Sorry...that is the seasonally adjusted number.

The REAL, unadjusted number is actually 3,085,000 LESS persons employed in January.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

Of course, there is pluses and minuses all year on the not seasonally adjusted side. But the REAL numbers actually did suck in January.


PLUS average weekly hours dropped by 0.2 and weekly earnings dropped by $2.25.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm


Looks like a pretty lousy report, overall, to me.


Always look beyond the headlines.

 

Coming off the corrupt and lousy obama presidency the economy can only go up.

 

The unadjusted number beats January a year ago's unadjusted number.

 

Are you actually serious?

That is the raw, total number....it means nothing on it's own. It is only when compared to the previous month that it matters. Just an increase in population during non-recession months will naturally increase the total non-farm number...surely you know that.

But if you want to compare now to then...look at the employment to population ratio...a FAR better (imo) barometer of employment then the goofy U-3.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

Last January, it went up (up is good). This January, it did not budge. The edge goes to last January.


And what about the less hours and weekly earnings last month?

 

most idiotic prediction I've seen in 10 years

 

You are the one who put it forward to challenge the seasonally adjusted number, so, I compared it to the unadjusted year ago number, and this number beats that one too.

59.9

60.1, which beat not only last January, but the last 95 months of the Obama Reign of Error.

 

I see you do not understand macroeconomics as much as I thought.

A month is judged by how it performed compared to the previous month - how much it grew or shrank. And why compare it to a year ago? Why not 5? Or 10? Or 20? Or 50?

And I told you already...I think Obama did a lousy job with the economy. GO waste an Obamabot's time with your strange comparisons.



And what about the less hours and weekly earnings last month?

 

Because they would have the same seasonal adjustment. Using seasonally adjusted numbers, you may compare month to month. Using unadjusted numbers, you compare to a year ago, Silly!

 

And what about the less hours and weekly earnings last month?

If you are going to avoid my questions....I will avoid yours...it's up to you.

 

I don't know if it is Trump or what, but our January numbers just came in.

Last year we averaged $843,913 per month.

We just did $1,096,874 in January.

 

if next Quarter's GDP is 5.4%, I will praise Trump on a daily basis and change my sig to "Make America Great Again".

 

You won't be a lone. The Fed Tracker has a decent track record, but it's not perfect.

The ISM numbers look good. Real consumer spending jumped from 3.1 percent to 4 percent and private fixed-investment growth surged from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent.



They are WAY higher than the Blue Chip forecast.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

I knew ya couldn't.

 

Actually, the first bank to start charging for savings accounts will be the first to close. People will empty their accounts before that happens.

 

Why are you touting living wage increases as though it's a good thing? That's just inflation. It's not something to brag about unless wages increase more. A living wage is what is necessary for a small family to have the basic necessities of life with a bit left over for pursuit of happiness. If the living wage increases but actual wages don't then more people drop into poverty.

 

Actually, the change in Peabody's graph could be easily resulting from the 18 states and 20 cities that decided to increase their minimum wage to higher than the federal mandate in 1/18.

 

Not if they feel that the money is safer in the bank than under the mattress. If you had a couple of million, would you feel good about having it at home?

In addition, -0.5% interest rate is not so bad when deflation is -2%, your money still gains purchasing power. It is all relative.

 

I think that all banks in Japan charge for keeping your money in their banks. I don't know if it's a fixed fee or a percentage. I could be wrong on this