Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That’s funny. Your feeble attempt to elicit an inappropriate response has failed.
     
  2. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Yea...that's a fair assessment.
     
  3. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Dr. Fauchi has explained that in the daily briefings.
     
  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    The marked rise in the death rate (exact number of COVID-19 deaths / exact total of all COVID-19 cases) is extremely concerning. It can mean:

    1.) the testing is more pinpoint, in areas where COVID-19 is more than just strongly suspected.
    2.) an increasing number of people who were classified as still ill are dying, which can only mean that in many cases the life-prolonging techniques are failing. This is the more likely option.
     
  5. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Game over. You have your freedom again.
     
  6. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    There is an expected lag between new tests increasing and a decrease in the death rate. Every country could each run 1 million more tests per day (except that's a technically impossible number) and the death rates would continue to increase until the sick people already in the system for 1-2 weeks either recover or die.

    Also, it is taking several days to get test results and the countries most under stress with a high number of deaths (Spain, France, Italy) are not focusing on increased testing right now.
     
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  7. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Both. :thumbsup:

    This is what we were told to expect for the next week to 10 days.

    We can only hope that they are correct about the peak and outcomes improve as predicted after that time frame.
     
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  8. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The exact number of Corona virus cases is not equal to the exact number of Corona virus infections which is unknown. The death rate calculated from the cases is misleading and somewhat meaningless.
     
  9. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Exactly. And that is how Dr. Fauchi explained how the number of deaths can be increasing but there is light at the end of the tunnel because the cases (which is a loose proxy for infections) per day are going down.
     
  10. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    There is a glimmer of hope and a light at the end of the tunnel, even though we do still have to expect about a week or so of really bad days.

    The curve is increasing at a decreasing rate since about the 4th week of March.

    upload_2020-4-7_17-59-11.png


    We certainly hope to see a flattening of case growth soon, following by a decline.

    upload_2020-4-7_18-1-32.png
     
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  11. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Dr. Birx in now. First comment was on African Americans. My interpretation is that the granularity of preconditions needs to be emphasized to them. As Ben Carson said, hypertension is a significant factor.

    Seeing flattening across the country. That’s great news. Not seeing attack rates of 7 per thousand - more like 2 per thousand.

    Warning not to buy antibody kits on internet. Working on much more reliable tests.
     
  12. squidward

    squidward Well-Known Member

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    No new doom and gloom numbers on the forum today. Strangely silent.
     
  13. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Well-Known Member

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    What we're doing is working. Sorry to disappoint you.
     
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  14. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Blacks have received less health care (along with anyone else living in poverty) in a disproportionate number. The poor are already well-aware that they have worse health outcomes overall. I don't think they need emphasis that they are more susceptible to Coronavirus.

    Poor people are more likely to eat an awful diet (cheap fast food), smoke, and drink (in excess). They are also more likely to have the "essential" jobs where they have to go work facing the public and don't have the luxury of working from home or staying at home.

    So the elderly and the poor will be hit hardest, especially when we have seen the wealthy jet-setters flitting to ski resorts and spring break beach vacations and coming home with an extra "souvenir".
     
  15. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If they are being affected at a significantly greater rate they absolutely do need to know that. Especially if there are underlying health problems specific to blacks for what ever reason they need to know about those factors. LA and other states report 40 - 70% of deaths are black Americans. Dr. Fauchi in the briefing has agreed that the data needs to be gathered and analyzed to see what patterns if any exist. And of course to develop plans accordingly. Diet leading to diabetes and pre diabetes may be a factor.

    And of course there are many more whirs and Hispanics in poverty than blacks.

    The current poverty rates are Blacks - 27%, Hispanics - 26%, Whites - 10%. Why are Hispanics not as adversely affected as Blacks?
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
  16. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    11 Countries reported more than 100 new deaths, which included for the first time a country in the southern hemisphere (Brazil), with Sweden also joining the club.

    ..................................New Deaths.......Total Deaths ........Total deaths per million population (April 7)

    1- USA: .................. 1,877 ...........12,748.............39
    2- France: ............. 1,417 .......... 10,328............158
    3- UK: ....................... 786 .............6,159............. 91
    4- Spain: .....................704 ...........14,045............300
    5- Italy: ........................604 ..........17,127............283
    6- Belgium: ..................403 ...........2,035.............176
    7- Netherlands: ............234 ...........2,101.............123
    8- Germany: .................206 ..........2,016...............24
    9- Iran: ..........................133 ..........3,872...............46
    10-Brazil: .......................122 .............686.................3
    11- Sweden:....................114.............591................59

    These numbers, of course, will change dramatically for various countries depending on where they are in the various stages of this pandemic. For instance, if the US averaged 1,000 new deaths per day for the next 30 days , by May 7, it would have added 30,000 deaths to its current number of deaths (12,748.), which would put its total deaths by the first week of May at more than 42,000. Now, if the new deaths averaged more along the figures reported for the US today, say 2,000 new deaths per day, the total deaths for the US in 30 days would be 60,000 plus +12,748 or more than 72,000.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
  17. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    There’s someone ^^^ who thinks deaths per million of population is important.
     
  18. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The U.S. was supposed to hit approx. 2,000 deaths per day yesterday and we aren't expected to be lower than 2,000 a day until April 26th when we're on the downhill side of the curve, and then back to 1,000 a day for the last week. Unfortunately, "hitting the peak" doesn't mean "it's over".

    At the top of the peak, we're likely to see 3,000 deaths per day for a few days. This is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. It's a good thing that the worst will only be about 20 days, but the next few weeks are likely to seem like years. Hopefully the health care system can handle it.


    upload_2020-4-7_19-20-32.png
     
  19. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    They are. The point of my earlier comment was that poor people will be hit hardest (after the elderly).

    The Latinos on Long Island are being hit harder than any other ethnic group.

    It doesn't have anything to do with ancestry; it's a function of poverty.

    Stats: Virus spreading in communities with higher Hispanic population


    https://www.newsday.com/news/health/coronavirus/virus-confirmed-covid-19-1.43727494

    "Local leaders say the high caseloads are driven by factors including difficulty engaging in social distancing because of household sizes and relatively high levels of residents who are working, thus risking exposure, either because they have been deemed essential employees or have comparatively low income levels and cannot get by without work."

    "In North Bay Shore, where 65% of the population is Hispanic, an average of 4.8 people live in a household. Huntington Station, where 39% of the population is Hispanic, has an average household size of 3.3.

    Census data show that all six communities also have a significant portion of residents living below poverty level. In Central Islip, where about 46% of the population is Hispanic, nearly 12% are below poverty level."
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
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  20. squidward

    squidward Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm?
    Never stopped it before.
     
  21. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    It is important, but not for the false narratives you want to spam around it.

    Today, that figure for the US is 39. By next month, one thing is certain: that figure won't be 39 and will be higher. How much higher? We will see, but no matter how you slice and dice it, in 30 days, that figure will almost certainly be more than 100 (and probably closer to 200 if not more).
     
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  22. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What false narratives ???

    Why have you included that in your abbreviated data list from world-o-metered ???

    And of course it goes up every day.
     
  23. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Those counties in Long Island range from 34% to 67% so of course they will have more Hispanic cases. But are there underlying preconditions which are driving Hispanic cases. Dr. Birx is focusing on that data breakdown now.

    I heard a comment that the CDC is repotting that weekly deaths due to pneumonia is down significantly lately. Couldn’t find any data however.
     
  24. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Some states are starting to report data by race. The CDC is supposed to have a national breakdown as early as this week.

    Another article on minorities being hit harder. I stand by my assessment that it has more to do with poverty than race.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...suffering-disproportionately-from-coronavirus
     
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  25. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    Too many for me to care to recount here, but here a couple I can mention:
    1- The attempt to derive the 'mortality rate' for the virus by using population figures and total deaths which are, of course, not frozen -- and will in fact be growing each day. Even if you wanted to use population figures for that purpose, the exercise would have to be done once the pandemic has pretty much run its course.
    2- The attempt to laud the way the US has handled the pandemic by trying to cite 'lower mortality per capita' than some other places, when you need to wait for the story to be told before you can engage in such conclusions.

    And I am not going to even address the "flu" arguments you have made. I have said what I think about those arguments before and don't feel like hearing the same nonsense again.

    Because, as a snap shot in time, and compared to places a week (Spain) or a couple of weeks (Italy) ahead of the US in the general course of this pandemic, you can get a very rough idea of where the US will be heading. And, at each turn, how much of the population is being affected just in terms of deaths -- never mind the many times those figures who are hospitalized and such.
    Of course. Which is why your attempts to freeze the numbers in time to arrive at your 'mortality' rates or make comparative arguments about this virus are simply not made in good faith.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
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