USA not 1/1000th of the way through the Pandemic.

meaning it's essentially meaningless.

 

The 2,644 figure is for ONE DAY: April 16, 2020.

Let's see what happens!

 

Oh.. suddenly we admire a predictions... but only when you do it.

 

You're just acting like Donald as he went on march 9 ....
Look only 22 deaths by Corona, compared to 90,000 deaths by your random flu. Let's think about that how insignificant this is. To than go jaw drop that this is going to get a heck of a lot worse. What's next? Join the idiot train chorus of... I can not blame myself for being a total loser of not being able to see this coming... let's go blame non white foreigners.

 

What's up with all the racism?

 

What's up with all that deflecting? Still not up to discuss what a massive loser the current president is?
He lies all the time. And as end result... a pile of corpses for being the most ill prepared country in the world now.
Bravo.

 

Talk about deflecting...oh the irony...

We were not even discussing Trump. We were discussing the predictions on death numbers and rates. In post #119 you totally bought the White House prediction of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. So clear this up for me. What is your death prediction for the US?

 

Well, some are trying to make this out as no worse than H1N1, pointing out that there were 12K deaths in the US in a one-year period.

We've gone from 0 deaths to over 7,000 deaths in 34 days. We will be at that same 12K in less than 5 days from now, and it is not going to stop climbing exponentially for at least two more weeks, and that's IF everyone continues to practice the social distancing, which isn't happening near as much as needed to get this thing under control.

12K in 365 days
to
12K in 39 days

Yes, they are different.

 

~1,400 a day dead now.
Rising to a peak of ~2,600/day dead by the 16th
Back down to ~1400/day by 5/4
~200/day by June 1
~17/day by July 1
~0/day by July 16 with ~94,000 total dead.

We are at 8,500 dead today, so it terms of expected deaths, 9% through it.

Our first death was 2/29/20 and if our last death is on 7/16, that's 138 days and today is day 35, so in terms of time, we are about a 1/4 way through.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

Last update from them was 4/1. The notice says to expect an update on 4/4, but we are running out of 4/4, so hopefully tomorrow. I really hope the projections provide something more hopeful.

 

That is plenty bad.

 

Great point.

I was checking the projected numbers against hard data from here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Their mid-line seems to be tracking fairly accurately, and were it doesn't it's well within range.

 

It sucks so bad it's beyond belief. How can we be looking at all these dead and have a mid-line that has all these American's dying in the next 30 days and we can't dodge the bullet? I've never experienced anything like this.

Here's one problem:

Coronavirus News: Social distancing is not happening on the NYC subway.

Check out that sub-way picture from this Wednesday.

I've never been to NYC. Do you have to ride the subway to do essential shopping? Maybe they are all essential workers and that's their only commute choice?

 

It's disheartening some times. On my town's FB page, people are complaining that they can't hang out in the park, sit at coffee shops, whatever.... muh rights & martial law silliness. When I point out the exponential insanity happening, plus we are in SE Florida, they laugh and call me Chicken Little. I hope for the best case scenario, but my hope's got nothing going on right now. This is so bad. Florida is still 29 days from peak resource use. We're screwed - my fellow Floridians are simply not taking this seriously. Families shopping for clothes / couples walking hand-in-hand checking out new TVs.... madness.

 

Yup. We should cross 12k dead on Tuesday the 7th,
somewhere in the neighborhood of 24k dead by the 12th
48k dead by the 21st.
90k dead by the 28th and through most of the storm by then.

I can't even get my mind around those kinds of numbers.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

But, when I add in the real time numbers for the few days that are projections, it's tracking the mid-line, far too well.

We need a major breakthrough and we needed it yesterday.

New York, again our worst hit city will be at the peak in 6 days. They are going to go with what is now known, in the midst of the chaos they will see this week, how in the world will they be able to substantially change treatment protocols on the fly?

"Here, add this pill, we think it might really help?"

 

Never been. Somebody told me to get off the train by 125th Street or it will go bad for you (me), but idk. That was before corona.

 

I wish you the best.

 

My favourite is that 38 million people live in Seoul. It will forever be my favourite, one Humpty Trumpty is fixed with into internity.

 

Indeed. I brought up that Donald, total idiot, has lost total control over the Corona outbreak. He never took it serious.His experts predict that they are going for a massacre of a kewl 100K to 240K.

I don't do statistics.

 

Well since that's what this thread is mostly about, you're out of luck.

 

Not so much. This aint about me. I'm not a narcist.
This is what them experts are saying. The US is out of luck.
Donald's hunch it wouldn't be so bad, caused the spread of the virus like crazy.
Idiot at the helm. A predicted 240K deaths... maga all the way.

 

OK so that's your prediction? 240K US deaths? Over what period of time?

 

IHME predicted we'd have 9,983 deaths today. We are currently at 9,602 with four hours to go. Their low estimate for today was 9,023, so they are just about right, and have been.

Their total deaths on 6/1 is 91,000. That's in just over 90 days (since our first death.) H1N1 killed 12,000 in 365 days.

Edit to fix 60 to 90.

 

nope.