Peak Internal Combustion Engine Sales Behind Us

electric motors operating at higher RPM generate heat which develops electrical resistance that uses exponentially more energy than an automatic gear change.

They would be useful in extending range of electric cars.

yeah but it drains the battery very quickly.

That's because you don't know anything.
The more energy you put in a lot to generate higher RPM the hotter it gets and the more resistance it develops. More gearing would reduce the need for greater rpm.

So you're electric car is so magical it defies the laws of physics?

 

yeah, not gullible.

you think car manufacturers are not going to pull the same crap with electric cars?

 

Ah hem !!!!

https://www.motorhills.com/do-teslas-have-transmissions/

 

When blackouts and brownouts start happening during a presidential election cycle coal will burn bright.

 

Everyone's needs are different and so they'll buy or won't buy an EV. Not everyone owns an ICE vehicle.

My needs are, I need a van that can tow, be large with a good range of miles, and be affordable. EV van's fail on all three points. Luckily, at my age, by the time ICE vehicles die out, I will have been well retired. My lads are not happy, they're be stuck with useless EV's in the future.

So, initially, EV's will sell well, but once you've got through those that are affluent, tighten your belt for poor to lack lustre sales.

If they came out with a hydrogen car, I would consider one of those, just fill up and drive, no lithium nightmare.

 

My car is 20 years old, never touched the gear box. As for engine maintenance, oil, oil filter, air filter change every 2 years. Diesel filter every 5 years. As for exhaust, it's had two rear boxes. Everything it has needed through it's life is found on an EV; suspension, steering, tyres, brakes etc..

The more electrics, be it on an ICE or EV vehicles, the more electric faults you have to deal with.

EV's are 54% dearer than an ICE equivalent, so you have to drive 200,000 miles before the EV starts to work out cheaper. My car has done 175,000, so if I had bought an EV 20 years ago, I would still be out of pocket. So all this EV cost saving on recharging and maintenance is a farce, 20+ years are wiped out upfront, if not more on hire purchase.

 

I never had an electrical fault on my vehicles.

 

Maybe, but if you look at the list of coal fired power plants in the US, very few are located where they would solve western state summer needs during periods of heat and drought that are increasing. Plus, a good number of plants are scheduled to be closed within the next 1 to 2 years.


My own view is that we're going to need nuclear energy. But, it's going to have to be done with more intelligence than it has been done in the past.

 

I get your point, especially at today's EV prices.

But, I think the general estimate is that an EV today would pay off the cost difference in 10 years.

 

That is the general estimate on Fantasy Island.

 

That would make sense, but Soros is buying into coal and fracking.
It' just possible that he may know something we don't.

 

You can do the math.

The information needed is in the Car and Driver analysis.

If you do that, I'd love to see your math, as in the past I've had to come up with my own mileage and cost numbers.

Car and Drive had the advantage that now there are equivalent models, one ICE and one EV.

 

Well, the western states coal that extractors wanted to ship by train to the Pacific coast would ALL go to China, they noted.

There are foreign markets for coal (unfortunately).

As for fracking, natural gas plants are being built today. They have been taking over from coal as the major fuel for electricity in the US.

I don't doubt Soros financial investments.

 

An earlier article about Soros investing coal and gas.

“Despite being known for backing left-wing groups generally opposed to fossil fuels, billionaire investor George Soros invested hundreds of millions of dollars in a major coal and natural gas producer.

SNL Energy reports that Soros “opened a new equity stake in coal and gas producer CONSOL Energy Inc., purchasing about 5.1 million shares of the company in the second quarter valued at $234.4 million.” SNL notes that Soros has no other holdings in coal companies in June 30th filings — which could have changed since then.

Consol Energy is one of the largest independent natural gas companies in the U.S. that also operates coal mines in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia. Soros actually bought a small stake in the company early last year, which he later sold off.

Soros’s Consol holdings seem to go against his funding of left-wing organizations, including environmental groups, that generally oppose hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, for natural gas and coal mining. Consol is active in fracking.

Consol recently made headlines after announcing it would begin fracking near the Pittsburgh airport this month. But the drilling near the airport is expected to bring in half a billion dollars which will help the airport pay off its debts.”
ORANGEPOWER.COM, Soros invests big in fracking company, Aug 17, 2014.
https://www.orangepower.com/threads/soros-invests-big-in-fracking-company.191235/

 

I like that you care about the environment and society, at least the lithium part, not the gas/oil part.

I absolutely agree that not everybody is going to want one of today's EVs. Many are shooting for the luxury market. As you point out, most can't tow much of anything. They have shorter range that many buyers feel they need, etc.

Those are all customer demands, and guessing that the capitalist automakers will ignore those customers hits me as quite unlikely. We didn't get cheap laptop computers instantly, either. Nobody even guessed we would get cell phones that have more capability than desktop computers did, and WAY WAY more power than landed humans on the moon.

 

I would still say that an EV doesn't have a transmission, at least when talking to the public.

From your cite:

When buying ICE cars, customers care about how many gears it has and what controls are available to alter how the transmission chooses which gear to use. They offer economy modes, modes offering rapid acceleration, etc.

It's a real difference that an EV doesn't have any of that.

 

The EV is quite a bit more expensive, and only gets in the ball park if eligible for incentive.
EV vs. Gas: Which Cars Are Cheaper to Own? - Car and Driver
https://www.caranddriver.com › shopping-advice › ev-...

May 22, 2020 — The Kona Electric, on the other hand, is more costly than the gas version by $7994. Then you get to factor in state and local incentives if ...

 

Yes. It's very well known that Soros likes to make himself look better to those who care about the environment.

But, his actions prove that he absolutely could not care less about anything but maximizing profit on energy products.

I'm not really saying that's wrong. I'm saying that nobody should accept the nonsense Soros spouts when talking about how green he is.

 

That doesn't address how long it takes for an EV to pay off the initial cost differential.

As Car and Drive notes, EVs are cheaper to fuel and require less maintenance.

The question is how many miles before one makes back the cost differential.

 

@WillReadmore
How about when the Greatest State of California
cannot meet the demands of charging EV's ?


Electricity becomes more expensive
and consumers will miss their
internal combustion cars / trucks.


Moi

​

What Me Worry
EMF & Brain​

 

Given that the EV is behind after three years per C&D, the likely answer may be never, or at best a decade or more.

 

Yes!

A federal study says that EV growth projections mean that by 2050 we would need 38% more electric power than we have today! Are they right??

The move to EVs means we would be shifting away from oil as an energy source. Today, more than 2/3 of our oil consumption is for transportation! Obviously, there will still be ICE vehicles in 2050, so we're not going to cut the whole 2/3 of oil consumption. But, it gives an idea of why EVs are going to add real demand for electricity.

But, we're going to need more electricity.

There is a lot of room for growth in clean energy.

My own view is that we will also have to accept nuclear power.

We need a serious energy plan for the USA.

Let's remember that our energy requirement is growing regardless of EVs.

 

C&D includes serious depreciation costs. Such costs are normally weighted toward the front end, so they assign high depreciation in the first 3 years.

I'm not so sure that depreciation will be what they claim.

Today, a year old Tesla can cost the same as a new one - the reason being that there is more demand than Tesla can meet. So, with Tesla not making that many year to year upgrades, a year old version can be about the same as buying new and thus not having to wait up to a year for delivery.

Also, they use a gas price of $2.44/gallon - a DREAM today.

Anyway, one does have to actually do the math.

 

You've been lucky.

 

But you need plastic and tyres for an EV from crude oil. So pro EV people don't care about the oil part either !!