Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

BTW, this happened yesterday:



People are reading this thread. A LOT.

 

I think I can cut to the chase about this, my friend.

I, on the inside, also knew that he was lying the entire time.

Only, I had not seen proof yet.

Suddenly, proof in form of incontrovertible audio evidence appears, evidence that he doesn't even dispute.

That jacks the anger level up, right then and there.

Worse, yet, he is so narcissistic, he actually acts as if he did nothing wrong. He is trying to bluster his way out of this one. It won't work.

Willingly lying to the American people in a way that deliberately induces deaths -whether on a mass level or not - is actually conspiracy against the United States of America - a crime. A major crime. When he is voted out of office, he should be charged with these crimes and let's let a jury of his peers decide his fate. That's how the legal system is supposed to work.

Tja.

 

A tribute to your ability to present stats, Stat.

 

Today is 9/11 and we lost thousands to an act of FOREIGN terrorism that fateful day.

Given the latest evidence I would have no problem charging the wannabe Fascist-in-Chief with Crimes Against Humanity for the deaths of HUNDREDS of THOUSANDS of Americans that he had a DUTY to protect.

 

My friend were is the real outcry?
This is the " Nixon Tapes ".

The headlines all over the US of A should be RESIGN NOW.

There are none.

200,000 dead, sit down for a minute and try to imagine that number, picture the rows of white markers, reaching to the horizon and everyday a thousand are added.
That is his legacy.
You are in Bonn, its just a short drive to the battle fields and their cemeteries, go there, best on a gloomy rainy day, its something you will never forget.
Outraged ?????????
Needed proof ?
Could not see the tree because of the forest.
Why did he close the border, because of the flu ? Because he did not know how deadly the virus is ?

 

Excellent point!
And the idea that he didn't want panic... just another lie. What he didn't want was the stock exchange to go down. He doesn't care about panic. He thrives in chaos. His entire re-election campaign is based on fanning the flames of panic and fear with the "sky-is-falling" and "America is doomed" if Biden is elected.

 

A bit off-topic but very interesting breaking news: it turns out that the efficacy data for the Gamaleya Sputinik V vaccine, the Russian vaccine that they approved after minimum testing, is highly likely to be made up, fake, and fraudulent (why am I not surprised, Vladimir?). Scholars fro European and American universities found striking inconsistencies in the Russian's Lancet paper, including two sets of volunteers (9 in one, 7 in other) who had exactly the same results in antibody titres, both the ones measured on day 21, and day 28, despite having received different formulations of the vaccine with different doses and strengths, a result that is as improbable as tossing 4 dice up to the air and expect that 9 times and then 7 times the numbers will be always exactly the same. This points to manipulation of the data, which nobody should be surprised about, the vaccine being Russian. There are also problems with the control group.

29 scholars sent this letter of concern:

https://cattiviscienziati.com/2020/09/07/note-of-concern/

 

What Trump told Bob Woodward affirms everything I’ve said about Trump, for example;

“We have a very unwise President, mainly due to his narcissistic personality disorder”

 

The panic he cared for was the stock market and the economy, his election platform

 

This is his legacy

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-010, posted 2020-09-011, 08:45 GMT +2, #12322.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-010, posted 2020-09-011, 09:09 GMT +2, #12325.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Friday, 2020-09-011 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍֍******** 28,648,009 ********֍֍
TWO DAYS IN A ROW OF +300,000 OR MORE NEWLY REPORTED C19 INFECTIONS, A VERY BAD SIGN.

+330,331 new C19 cases over the day before, smashing the former record - worst day thus far, by far.
TOTAL C19 cases: 163 nations with 1,000+, 92 with 10,000+, 55 with 50,000+, 34 with 100,000+, 4 with 1,000,000+.
There have now been 919,099 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,807 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +266,352 new C19 cases per day / +5,824 deaths per day (identical to the day before).
+1,202 Indian, +1,093 US-American, +899 Brazilian, +554 Mexican and +243 Argentinian new deaths were recorded.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 60,904 (+123 over the day before)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The world just cracked 28 million cases two days before and now we are already we are at 28.65 million. The world literally grew +613,160 cases in 48 hours. This is not good news.

Yesterday, I wrote:

And so it was.

Do a mental exercise: take a look at the current mortality rate: 3.21% (deaths/confirmed cases). Now, look at the +613,160 cases our world just grew in only 48 hours and realize that more than 19,600 of them are going to end up dead from this virus. JUST FROM THE CASES REPORTED IN THESE LAST 48 HOURS.

The last couple of days, I wrote:

The current rolling averages tell me that by the end of this week, we will likely be slightly ahead of where we were last week.

The number of daily deaths (5,807) for the day currently being analysed was almost identical to the Friday before (5,811).

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 3 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: Romania, Panama and Tunisia.

It could be helpful as the week develops to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +500 C19 cases and above):
​

Just five days before, on 2020-09-006, India leap-frogged ahead of Brazil from rank 3 to rank 2 in the total C19 cases rubrik and now on 2020-09-011, India is already +373,401 cases ahead of Brazil. To put this into perspective: just the new margin of cases between India and Brazil, were it to stand as a total value for a nation, would be rank 12 at current, meaning that the margin alone is more than the total C19 count since day over 200 other nations, island states or territories. Soon, I will not be writing about how far India has pulled ahead of Brazil, but rather, how close it is coming to overtaking the USA in total cases. The situation has gotten so bad in India that Germany is sending teams of doctors, PPE and such to India in order to help.

Also, it's kind of wild to see that the number of countries with over 100,000 C19 cases (34) is now so large, it no longer fits onto the first screenshot, but rather, goes down into the second screenshot. About 1.5 months ago, it was "only" 23 such countries:



Life comes at you fast.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

The top four nations represent 2/3 of all new cases from this day.

6 of the 10 top nations in +cases are from the Americas.

9 of the 30 nations above +1,000 new cases are from Europe.
​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

The top 4:

USA, total deaths: 197,421 / 21.48% of worldwide deaths (21.50% the day before), -15,204 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,045 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-09-012.

Brazil, total deaths: 130,474 / 14.20% of worldwide deaths (14.19% the day before, for the 2nd time), -81,274 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 938 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-11-022.

India, total deaths: 77,506 / 8.43% of worldwide deaths (8.35% the day before), -38,306 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 948 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-10-007. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

Mexico, total deaths: 69,649 / 7.58% of worldwide deaths (7.57% the day before), -37,924 from the 100,000-death-line. extrapolated 100,000 death date: 2020-10-021.

Combined (475,050), the top four nations currently represent 51.86% of all total deaths in the world to-date (was also 51.60% the day before).

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 699 per day (the day before: 692)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 759 per day (the day before: 753)
Average daily deaths for India (current): 1,105 per day (the day before: 1,124)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days. That streak was broken on 2020-08-028.

India reached a rolling 7-day death average of +1,000 (or more) for the first time on 2020-09-005 and has maintained it until current.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

54 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Hong Kong jumping from 780,415 to 2,783,134 completed tests from one day to the next, crossing over the 1,000,000-completed-tests-line on 2020-09-011; of those 54, 8 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil, Germany and France, with France having leapfrogged over both Spain and Italy on 2020-09-011 and breaking the 10,000,000 mark. Currently at 9.99 and 9.55 million total tests, respectively, Spain and Italy are next to cross over the 10-million line.

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numeric change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.


FACIT: on 2020-09-011, the world travelled from 28.32 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 28.4, 28.5 and 28.6 million to land at 28.65 million. At this trajectory, the world will most definitely go over 29 million confirmed COVID-19 on 2020-09-013.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-010, posted 2020-09-011, 09:09 GMT +2, #12325.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-010, posted 2020-09-011, 10:22 GMT +2, #12336.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for Friday, 2020-09-011 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):



****** 6,636,247 ******
+48,084 new COVID-19 cases, less +cases than on the Friday before.
On 2020-09-011, Missouri crossed over 100,000 total COVID-19 cases; is the 21st state to do so.
There are now 197,421 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,093 of them were recorded on this day.
The USA is now -2,579 away from a total of 200,000 officially recorded, certified COVID-19 deaths.
USA 7-day rolling average = 35,313 new infections & 759 deaths per day.
14,347 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-159 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 90.8 million

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

Even on a day like the 19th memorial of the horrific attacks from 9-11-2001, the COVID-19 virus doesn't take a day off. A lot of people in the USA died from COVID-19 on September 11th, 2020.

Over the last days, I wrote:

It's looking as if the USA is going to land under the weekly averages from the week before - a good sign, for now.

There the number of deaths on this day (1,090) was was slightly more than the Friday before.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), there is a running case and death projection for the world until the end of 2020.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that would have translated to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. However, (this note is as of 2020-08-030), the rate of daily cases has clearly slowed down in the USA and it looks more as if we will be working on 9 million instead of 10 million come election day. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 1 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day: Missouri

The rubrik table for "total cases, 1,000 or more", the number "57" is locked-in (highlighted in purple), since it cannot possibly go any higher.

It could be as each week develops to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

For the 4th day in a row, Texas lead over California in daily +C19 cases.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 197,421 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of slightly more than all of SHREVEPORT or almost exactly the total population of AKRON, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that. The city at the top of this screenshot, Akron (OH) is near and dear to my heart. I lived and studied (Masters Degree) there for a number of years. To think that my 2nd hometown literally just disappeared from the face of the earth is.... stunning.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:


This means that we are currently at +4,974 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 5.9 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is, for the second time in a row, lower than the corresponding day in the week before (+5,614), to note. I expected deaths to dip at the Labor Day weekend, which is of couse, a good thing, but does not necessarily mean that they will stay there. That's the problem. Even with the dip, I suspect that, only -2,579 away from the 200,000-line, the USA will cross that line by 2020-09-015, perhaps a day earlier.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.




-Stat

 

I didn't say I needed proof. I said that I suddenly saw proof. That's a big difference, mein Freund.

 

Why oh why am I not surprised by this....

 

When I saw the pictures of Bunker Boys last rally I was reminded of this guy.

 

I remember when we were feeling bad for Italy.
And now this:

 

I remember right-wings we’re blaming Italy’s health care system for their high number of Covid19 deaths.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-010, posted 2020-09-011, 10:22 GMT +2, #12336.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-010, posted 2020-09-011, 10:50 GMT +2, #12337.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Saturday, 2020-09-012 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍֍******** 28,931,434 ********֍֍

+283,426 new C19 cases over the day before, more than the Saturday before.
INDIA records over +90,000 new C19 cases for the 4th day in a row.
FRANCE reports more than +10,000 new C19 cases, making for 5 nations over +10,000.
TOTAL C19 cases: 163 nations with 1,000+, 93 with 10,000+, 55 with 50,000+, 34 with 100,000+, 4 with 1,000,000+.
The world will most definitely go over 29 million total COVID-19 cases today, 2020-09-013.

There have now been 924,080 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +4,981 of them were on this day.
INDIA has reported more than +1,000 deaths per day for 12 days in a row and for a total of 16 of the last 19 days.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +268,178 new C19 cases per day / +5,843 deaths per day (identical to the day before).
+1,108 Indian, +800 Brazilian, +707 US-American, +534 Mexican and +216 Argentinian new deaths were recorded.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 60,887 (-17 over the day before)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The world just cracked 28 million cases three days before and now we are already we are at 28.93 million. The world literally grew +916,568 cases in 72 hours. This is not good news.

The current rolling averages tell me that by the end of this week, we will likely be slightly ahead of where we were last week.

The number of daily deaths (4,981) for the day currently being analysed was more than the Saturday before (4,842).

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 2 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: Guinea and Hong Kong.

It could be helpful as the week develops to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +500 C19 cases and above):
​

Just six days before, on 2020-09-006, India leap-frogged ahead of Brazil from rank 3 to rank 2 in the total C19 cases rubrik and now on 2020-09-011, India is already +435,930 cases ahead of Brazil. To put this into perspective: just the new margin of cases between India and Brazil, were it to stand as a total value for a nation, would currently be rank 11, meaning that the margin alone is more than the total C19 count since day over 203 other nations, island states or territories. Soon, I will not be writing about how far India has pulled ahead of Brazil, but rather, how close it is coming to overtaking the USA in total cases. The situation has gotten so bad in India that Germany is sending teams of doctors, PPE and such to India in order to help.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

The top five nations, all at +10,000 or above, represent 2/3 of all new cases from this day.

6 of the 10 top nations in +cases are from the Americas.

7 of the 29 nations above +1,000 new cases are from Europe.
​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

The top 4:

USA, total deaths: 198,128 / 21.44% of worldwide deaths (21.48% the day before), -15,204 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,045 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-09-012.

Brazil, total deaths: 131,274 / 14.21% of worldwide deaths (14.20% the day before, for the 2nd time), -81,274 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 938 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-11-022.

India, total deaths: 78,614 / 8.51% of worldwide deaths (8.43% the day before), -38,306 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 948 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-10-007. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

Mexico, total deaths: 70,183 / 7.59% of worldwide deaths (7.58% the day before), -37,924 from the 100,000-death-line. extrapolated 100,000 death date: 2020-10-021.

Combined (478,199), the top four nations currently represent 51.75% of all total deaths in the world to-date (was also 51.86% the day before).

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 721 per day (the day before: 699)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 759 per day (the day before: 759)
Average daily deaths for India (current): 1,134 per day (the day before: 1,124)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days. That streak was broken on 2020-08-028.

India reached a rolling 7-day death average of +1,000 (or more) for the first time on 2020-09-005 and has maintained it until current.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

55 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Azerbaijan crossing over the 1,000,000-completed-tests-line on 2020-09-012; of those 55, 8 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil, Germany and France. Currently at 9.99 and 9.75 million total tests, respectively, Spain and Italy are next to cross over the 10-million line.

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numeric change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.


FACIT: on 2020-09-012, the world travelled from 28.65 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 28.7, 28.8 and 28.9 million to land at 28.93 million. At this trajectory, the world will most definitely go over 29 million confirmed COVID-19 today, 2020-09-013.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-010, posted 2020-09-011, 10:50 GMT +2, #12337.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-012, posted 2020-09-013, 09:42 GMT +2, #12343.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for Saturday, 2020-09-012 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

****** 6,676,601 ******
+40,354 new COVID-19 cases, less +cases than on the Saturday before.
There are now 198,128 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 707 of them were recorded on this day.
The USA is now -1,872 away from a total of 200,000 officially recorded, certified COVID-19 deaths.
The USA is likely to surpass 200,000 total COVID-19 deaths on Tuesday, 2020-09-015.
USA 7-day rolling average = 35,064 new infections & 759 deaths per day (exactly the same at the day before).
14,366 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (+19 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 91.7 million

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

It's looking as if the USA is going to land under the weekly averages from the week before - a good sign, for now.

In a statistical rarity, the number of deaths on this day (707) was identical to the Saturday before (707), which of course caused the 7-day rolling statistic to remain identical to the rolling statistic from the day before.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), there is a running case and death projection for the world until the end of 2020.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that would have translated to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. However, (this note is as of 2020-08-030), the rate of daily cases has clearly slowed down in the USA and it looks more as if we will be working on 9 million instead of 10 million come election day. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 0 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day.
The rubrik table for "total cases, 1,000 or more", the number "57" is locked-in (highlighted in purple), since it cannot possibly go any higher.

It could be as each week develops to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

Just to note: California is now closer to 800,000 total C19 cases than it is to 700,000, while both Texas and Florida are closer to 700,000 total C19 cases than they are to 600.000. Also, the Navajo Nation is about to break over 10,000 total C19 cases.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

After seeing Texas lead in +C19 cases for four days in a row, on this Saturday, California was once again in the lead, and this is spite of massive, uncontrolled wildfires ravaging the West Coast of the USA.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 198,128 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 197,900-236,600:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of slightly more than all of LITTLE ROCK or just under the total population of AMARILLO, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:


This means that we are currently at +4,831 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 5.7 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is, for the second time in a row, lower than the corresponding day in the week before (+5,471), to note. I expected deaths to dip at the Labor Day weekend, which is of couse, a good thing, but does not necessarily mean that they will stay there. That's the problem. Even with the dip, I suspect that, only -1,872 away from the 200,000-line, the USA will cross that line on Tuesday 2020-09-015 or -perhaps- a day earlier.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

I have at times a rather sordid humor.
Well at times ?
Today we had again as usual Bunker Boy parade, up and down Main Street, cars and pick ups full of lags and Bunker Boy banners.
There was a lady in a pick up, with three flags, Bunker Boy, Stripy and Baggers and each of the poles had a white cross on top of it.
Just like those.
First I took a look at the my cig and thought, Holy Cow what did they put into that sucker.
But than she came back and I started to laugh, I laughed so hard I had 5 covid attacks and my customers thought, now the old man has finally gone over the brink.
That was one of those moments I wished I had one of those cell thingies and could have taken a picture

Just : Groeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoehllllllllllllllllll

 

Dude, you need a Cell-thingy.


Gröööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööhlllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

 

Right wingers probably have just reacted with low level of information and a knee-jerk, thinking "European country; must be liberals and socialists running things", ignoring that Italy's government is ferociously right wing. Their knee-jerk was also to think, "socialist health care, must be terrible" also ignoring that Italy has the second best performing health system in the world, and in what matters most to fight off the onslaught of acute cases they faced, that is, number of hospital beds per 100,000 of population, they have more than the United States. So the criticism was laughable. The lesson to learn is that EVEN Italy, with its high-performing, advanced health system and its large numbers of hospital beds by population, got overwhelmed by the onslaught of an impossible-to-manage number of critical cases, which should be a cautionary tale.

So why did it happen? Due to a number of factors.

One, Italy has one of the oldest populations on Earth.

Two, the elderly in Italy typically live in multi-generation households, the practice of retirement communities and nursing homes being much less typical there than in other countries, so they were more exposed to contagion by their younger relatives.

Three, Italians by culture are very gregarious and very touchy, with kiss-kiss and hugs and a personal space that is shorter than in other countries (that is, Italians get very close to each other without feeling discomfort with the physical proximity).

Fourth, Italians gather in large numbers, daily, in crowded indoor spaces like the ritual of going to a coffee shop in the morning and restaurants at night, places that are shown to be hot spots for the spread of this airborne disease.

Fifth, Italy's largest city and hardest hit in the early days of the contagion, the Northern city of Milan, is a very young and vibrant city (one of the European capitals of fashion, design, and information technology, home to hundreds of thousands of young urban professionals) and the Italian government made a huge mistake: when the virus ballooned out of control in the city, they decided to cordon it out and forbid travel to and from the city, but made the boneheaded move of announcing a deadline 3 days in advance; well, the cocky and arrogant yuppies in Milan didn't want to be confined and fled the city by the hundreds of thousands over those 3 days before the deadline, in order to go and stay with their parents down south, everywhere in Italy. They seeded the virus simultaneously everywhere, and due to that multi-generation household trait, parents and grand-parents caught the virus simultaneously everywhere, becoming critical due to their age at about the same time, thus overwhelming the healthcare system.

Sixth, Italians by trait are not very good at respecting laws and directives; they are always trying to circumvent them. For example, Rome has a central area that is forbidden for cars except for the cars of people who can prove that they live inside that area, which is shown by displaying a permit. Well, it happens that most inhabitants of Rome have secured permits to drive into those areas regardless of actually living there, by appealing to numerous exceptions and by getting permits applied for by a cousin of a cousin who does reside there, so that effectively the ban is toothless. OK, so the early days of the lockdown, nobody respected it. It took a vote by Parliament to create a new felony, "aiding an epidemic" with sentencing guidelines of, brace for it, 12 years in prison, and it took the Army being on the streets to enforce it and to charge 40,000 Italians with the felony, for the lockdown to be finally respected.

All the above conspired to make of Italy a basket case in the early days of the pandemic, NOT Italy's outstanding healthcare system.

 

Good morning, PFers!

I hope you all had a good weekend. Before I start with the two major analyses, as has become my Monday tradition, here the excel tables for our World and the top 4 nations (total cases), so that you can compare that Monday-through-Sunday weekly rolling statistics, without any extra commentary from me, other than to say that interesting things are happening in all four top nations.

WORLDWIDE​

USA​

INDIA​

BRAZIL​

RUSSIA​

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-012, posted 2020-09-013, 09:42 GMT +2, #12343.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-012, posted 2020-09-013, 10:00 GMT +2, #12344.
Pre-analysis: excel tables for World, top 4 nations, posted 2020-09-014, 09:31 GMT +2, #12348.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Sunday, 2020-09-013 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
The world went over 29 million total COVID-19 cases on this day.
֍֍********* 29,175,454 *********֍֍

+244,020 new C19 cases over the day before, more than the Sunday before.
INDIA records over +90,000 new C19 cases for the 5th day in a row.
TOTAL C19 cases: 163 nations with 1,000+, 93 with 10,000+, 55 with 50,000+, 34 with 100,000+, 4 with 1,000,000+.
ISRAEL will go back into total lockdown for three weeks as of this coming FRIDAY, 2020-09-018. See: below

There have now been 927,986 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +3,906 of them were on this day.
INDIA has reported more than +1,000 deaths per day for 13 days in a row and for a total of 17 of the last 20 days.
Worldwide WEEKLY rolling averages: +270,248 new C19 cases per day / +5,812 deaths per day (identical to the day before).
+1,140 Indian, +421 Mexican, +392 US-American, +389 Brazilian and +190 Colombian new deaths were recorded.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 60,690 (-197 over the day before)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The world just cracked 28 million cases four days before and now we are already we well over 29 million. Life comes at you fast! The world literally grew +1,160,606 cases in 96 hours. That averages to 201.5 new C19 cases PER MINUTE.

The number of daily deaths (3,906) for the day currently being analysed was more than the Sunday before (4,129).

You can see from the weekly 7-day averages that the world went down slightly, from an average of 272,188 C19 cases in the week before to 270,248 such daily cases in the week that just ended. Conversely, the world went up from an average of 5,306 C19 daily deaths in the week before to 5,812 such daily deaths in the week that just ended.

If you check out the pre-analysis posting (#12348 ), you will see that average cases and deaths are on the downslope in both the USA and Brazil, on the upslope in - interestingly enough, Russia and on the steep upslope in India. India is the only nation thus far to achieve a weekly AVERAGE of over +90,000 cases. In terms of total cases, India is currently rank two and in total deaths, rank 3, but in the other three important rubriks (+cases, +deaths), India is solidly at rank 1.

ISRAEL​

I was about to write an independent posting about this, but will simply include it here. The fact that Israel has decided to go back into lockdown effective this coming Friday, literally only hours ahead of the Yomaim Noreem (High Holidays) is a truly important piece of news. There is an important but lesser known Synagogue service that always happens very late on the Saturday before Rosh Hashonah (as in, starting around 23:00 and going past midnight) begins, called "S'lichot" (prayers for penitence or forgiveneness, casting away one's sins). I have participated in S'lichot all of my adult life, but deliberately chose to not physically enter a Synagogue for it this last Saturday. Why? Because on S'lichot, people are packed in next to each other like sardines in a can. Most synagogues in the USA decided to do the S'lichot service over Zoom or the like, and some Yeshivas (schools of learning) did it like this on Saturday:




But in New York, right at ground zero for the outbreak in February, 2020, in New Rochelle, Orthodox Jews changed nothing and prayed S'lichot just as they always had and worse yet, there were already reports of new cases within the community last week. So, I suspect that PM Netanyahu was watching to see how people in Eretz Yisrael behaved this last Saturday before deciding yesterday to go into full lockdown, because we Jews just love to congregate for Rosh Hashonah (New Year) and above all other days in the year, for Yom Kippur (Day of Atonement), so what I hope to impress upon our PF readers is that this is a sign that things are going very, very badly in Israel vis-a-vis COVID-19 when you have to lock down the country literally at the start of the holiest days of the year. The timing, from a Jewish perspective, could not possibly be worse. This makes Israel the 1st industrialized, 1st-world nation to go back into lockdown. And I am pretty sure it won't be the last.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 2 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: Namibia and Ethiopia. For the entire week, from Monday through Sunday, there was a sum total of 16 nation-rubrik-jumps.

It could be helpful as the week develops to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +500 C19 cases and above):
​

The dust you see in front of you is India cruising at about a gajillion miles an hour down the great COVID-19 highway of life.

Just seven days before, on 2020-09-006, India leap-frogged ahead of Brazil from rank 3 to rank 2 in the total C19 cases rubrik and now on 2020-09-013, India is already a cool half-million, or exactly +514,548 cases ahead of Brazil.

To put this into perspective: just the new margin of cases between India and Brazil, were it to stand as a total value for a nation, would currently be rank 11, meaning that the margin alone is more than the total C19 count since day over 203 other nations, island states or territories. The situation has gotten so bad in India that Germany is sending teams of doctors, PPE and such to India in order to help.

This is the last day that I write this text, but it should be apparent that India is now dominating the C19 news across the world. And soon, enough, India will be less than 1,000,000 cases behind the USA. Don't blink too often, for it will likely happen just before the end of this month (I'm thinking September 28th or 29th) and by the end of October, India will be father ahead of the USA than it currently is past Brazil.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

6 of the top 10 nations are from the Americas.

Oman made the +1,000 list.
​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

The top 4:

USA, total deaths: 198,520 / 21.39% of worldwide deaths (21.44% the day before), -1,480 from the 200,000-death-line. The USA will cross over the 200,000-death-line on 2020-09-015 or 2020-09-016 (at the very latest).

Brazil, total deaths: 131,663 / 14.19% of worldwide deaths (14.21% the day before, for the 2nd time), -68,367 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 711 per day, from 2020-09-013 = +96 days from now: 2020-12,020.

India, total deaths: 79,754 / 8.59% of worldwide deaths (8.51% the day before), -20,246 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,152 per day, from 2020-09-013 = +18 days: 2020-09-025. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

Mexico, total deaths: 70,604 / 7.60% of worldwide deaths (7.59% the day before), -29,396 from the 100,000-death-line. No extrapolation for 100,000 deaths quite yet.

Combined (480,541), the top four nations currently represent 51.78% of all total deaths in the world to-date (was also 51.86% the day before).

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 711 per day (the day before: 721)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 753 per day (the day before: 759)
Average daily deaths for India (current): 1,151 per day (the day before: 1,134)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history: USA and Brazil. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three -or four- largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days. That streak was broken on 2020-08-028.

India reached a rolling 7-day death average of +1,000 (or more) for the first time on 2020-09-005 and has maintained it until current.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

55 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 55, 8 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil, Germany and France. Currently at 9.99 and 9.75 million total tests, respectively, Spain and Italy are next to cross over the 10-million line.

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numeric change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.


FACIT: on 2020-09-013, the world travelled from 28.93 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 29.0 and 29.1 million to land at 29.18 million. At this trajectory, the world will likely go over 30 million confirmed COVID-19 on Thursday, 2020-09-017 at the latest.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-012, posted 2020-09-013, 10:00 GMT +2, #12344.
Pre-analysis: excel tables for World, top 4 nations, posted 2020-09-014, 09:31 GMT +2, #12348.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-013, posted 2020-09-014, 10:59 GMT +2, #12349.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for Sunday, 2020-09-013 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

****** 6,708,458 ******
+31,857 new COVID-19 cases, more +cases than on the Sunday before.
There are now 198,520 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 392 of them were recorded on this day.
The USA is now -1,480 away from a total of 200,000 officially recorded, certified COVID-19 deaths.
The USA is likely to surpass 200,000 total COVID-19 deaths on Tuesday, 2020-09-015.
USA WEEKLY rolling average = 35,458 new infections & 753 deaths per day.
14,113 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-253 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 92.4 million

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

You can see from the weekly 7-day averages for the USA went down considerably, from an average of 41,002 daily C19 cases in the week before to 35,458 such daily cases in the week that just ended and also went down an average of 861 C19 daily deaths in the week before to 753 such daily deaths in the week that just ended.

The number of deaths on this day (392) was less than on the Sunday before (432).

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), there is a running case and death projection for the world until the end of 2020.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that would have translated to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. However, (this note is as of 2020-08-030), the rate of daily cases has clearly slowed down in the USA and it looks more as if we will be working on 9 million instead of 10 million come election day. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

FLASHBACK TO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND:​

This is an excerpt from the EXCEL table showing the Memorial Day weekend at the bottom highlighting the weekly averages in the 4 weeks that followed. Should be be that the behavior of Americans at Labor Day weekend parallel that of Memorial Day Weekend, then this Sunday, 2020-09-013, would rougly correspond to Sunday, 2020-05-031.

Back then, we can see that in the fourth weekend after Memorial day, the cases started to really shoot up, causing the July summer surge as we know know it, but deaths had not started to rise yet, since deaths are obviously a lagging indicator.

I am going to leave this graphic up for a number of weeks so that you can look to see if parallels are emerging, or not. Right now, just one week away from Labor Day Weekend, I would say that it is too early to say anything definitive yet. Let your own eyes do the walking...

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 0 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day. For the entire week, from Monday through Sunday, there was a sum total of 4 unit-rubrik-jumps, 3 in total cases, 1 in total deaths..

The rubrik table for "total cases, 1,000 or more", the number "57" is locked-in (highlighted in purple), since it cannot possibly go any higher.

It could be as each week develops to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

Just to note: California is now closer to 800,000 total C19 cases than it is to 700,000, while both Texas and Florida are closer to 700,000 total C19 cases than they are to 600.000. Also, the Navajo Nation is about to break over 10,000 total C19 cases.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

After seeing Texas lead in +C19 cases for four days in a row, on this Sunday, California was once again in the lead, and this is spite of massive, uncontrolled wildfires ravaging the West Coast of the USA. So, California lead on days 1, 6 and 7, while Texas lead on days 2, 3, 4 & 5.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 198,520 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 197,900-236,600:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of just under the total population of AMARILLO, never to get it back again. Think about that.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:


This means that we are currently at +4,373 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 5.1 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is, for the second time in a row, lower than the corresponding day in the week before (+5,053), to note. I expected deaths to dip at the Labor Day weekend, which is of couse, a good thing, but does not necessarily mean that they will stay there. That's the problem. Even with the dip, I suspect that, only -1,480 away from the 200,000-line, the USA will cross that line on Tuesday 2020-09-015.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat